AI Data Insight
The latest data shows that the YoY growth rate of US government revenue in Q2 2026 dropped to -9.62%, a significantly widened decline compared to the previous -1.51%. The Supreme Court's ruling on illegal tariffs led to massive refunds, which, coupled with sluggish corporate tax revenue, caused the recent budget surplus to fall short of market consensus. In the short term, the wave of tax refunds will continue to suppress financial resources, and the market is concerned that the deteriorating fiscal deficit will push up pressure on US Treasury issuance.