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US Cuts Tariffs on South Korea

The United States recently confirmed it will lower tariffs on South Korean imports from 25 percent to 15 percent, retroactive to November 1, 2025. This move significantly reduces the burden on major Korean export items such as automobiles and aircraft components. Overall industry costs are expected to decline by about 10 percent compared with the previous month, while easing the market uncertainty caused by the earlier high tariffs. Automakers like Hyundai and Kia are expected to benefit the most, potentially saving billions of dollars in tariff payments starting in November and setting a new record low tariff level since the bilateral trade agreement took effect. On South Korea’s side, the National Assembly passed a bill on November 26 to fulfill its 350 billion dollar strategic investment commitment to the United States, meeting the requirements outlined in the U.S. memorandum and prompting the U.S. Department of Commerce to finalize the tariff reduction. This investment framework originated from the summit between South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and U.S. President Trump on October 29, where the two sides reached an “investment-for-tariffs” agreement, including 200 billion dollars in cash investments and a 150 billion dollar shipbuilding cooperation project. The Trump administration is promoting this approach to strengthen U.S. industrial interests, while South Korea is moving quickly through legislation to prevent its electronics and automotive sectors from continuing to face a 25 percent tariff burden. In the short term, the tariff reduction is expected to support growth in Korean exports to the U.S., with automobile sales in the first quarter of 2026 projected to rise more than 5 percent year over year, helping revive the supply chain. In the midterm, the U.S.–Korea trade framework may expand to more product categories. South Korea will need to continue meeting its investment commitments to maintain the reciprocal 15 percent tariff rate, the same level granted to Japan and the European Union, and reduce risks in future negotiations. While the overall market outlook is generally positive, global trade conditions remain uncertain under Trump’s policies. South Korean companies will need to strengthen domestic production strategies to better withstand volatility.

The Fed's Latest Beige Book: Cooling Consumer Spending and Softening Labor Market

The Federal Reserve’s November 2025 Beige Book indicates that overall economic activity showed little change compared with the previous report, though some districts experienced slight declines. Consumer spending continued to weaken, particularly in the first half of November, as automobile sales dropped noticeably following the expiration of federal tax credits. The labor market softened as firms largely implemented hiring freezes or only replaced departing employees, leading to further slowing in employment growth. On the price front, input costs generally increased, and overall prices rose moderately due to higher tariffs as well as rising insurance, utility, and healthcare expenses. The slowdown in consumer spending and employment was driven by several factors. The government’s earlier prolonged shutdown heightened market uncertainty and reduced consumers’ willingness to spend. Advances in artificial intelligence replaced certain entry-level positions, boosting business efficiency but reducing the need for new hires. Toward the end of the year, rising cost pressures, particularly tariff-related increases in input costs that fed into final prices, made consumers more price-sensitive and restrained spending. Additionally, performance in the financial and real estate sectors was mixed, with notable regional differences in construction activity and office real-estate markets. In the short term, the Beige Book suggests rising risks of further economic slowdown, and businesses generally maintain a cautious outlook. The Federal Reserve may lean toward easing policies in response to cooling consumption and a weakening labor market. In the medium term, cost pressures remain, and differing corporate attitudes toward price pass-through may keep inflation trends volatile. Policymakers will closely monitor upcoming official data releases, particularly employment and inflation indicators, to guide monetary policy adjustments. Markets broadly expect room for a rate adjustment in December, with labor-market and consumption trends continuing to serve as key indicators.

Gold and Silver Surge Again: Demand Accelerates Driven by Capital and Policy Synergy

Gold and silver prices have clearly rebounded over the past two months. According to ANZ’s report, as of September 2025, gold has reached around 4,000 USD per ounce, rising more than 10 percent from the beginning of the year. Silver has surpassed 44.7 USD per ounce, hitting a multi-year high. In mid-November, supported by capital inflows and policy expectations, gold and silver strengthened again and remained near multi-year highs. Overall, both metals showed double-digit growth compared with the same period last year, reflecting rising risk-aversion and steady industrial demand. Recently, gold and silver prices moved higher once more, driven mainly by three factors. First, the expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the possibility of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve have increased market liquidity, enhancing the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets. Second, structural demand driven by the energy transition, especially strong silver demand from the solar industry, has further supported silver prices. In addition, rising geopolitical tensions and greater macroeconomic uncertainty have reinforced gold’s role as a store of value, while a weaker US dollar and shifts in the global monetary system have strengthened upward momentum for gold. In the short term, expectations of policy easing and safe-haven demand will likely keep gold fluctuating around 4,000 USD, while silver has the potential to challenge the 50 USD level. In the medium term, structural demand from new energy and industrial applications will continue to support silver, while gold is expected to benefit from a weaker dollar and central banks’ ongoing accumulation, maintaining a bullish bias. Although policy shifts may create short-term volatility, the fundamentals of the gold and silver markets remain solid, reflecting the long-term value re-rating under global economic and energy-structure changes. Investors may continue monitoring monetary policy and geopolitical risks to capture potential price movements. Read More at Datatrack

US October CPI Report Canceled for the First Time, Inflation Trend Awaited

Latest updates in November 2025 indicate that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to conduct price surveys during the federal funding lapse, leading to the cancellation of the October 2025 CPI release. Since CPI calculations heavily rely on real-time surveys, the missing data cannot be reconstructed retroactively, leaving October’s inflation conditions incomplete. However, some non-survey-based inputs will be incorporated into the November release. As a result, the November CPI publication date has been postponed from December 10 to December 18. According to the BLS, price surveys could not be legally conducted during the shutdown, and the associated data cannot be rebuilt afterward. This makes it impossible to produce both the headline and core CPI for October, and updates will only resume once data collection is restored. In addition, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the release of another key inflation gauge, the PCE, will also be rescheduled, with the exact date yet to be determined. This further widens the information gap for markets and policymakers, leaving the Federal Reserve without a critical inflation indicator ahead of its year-end rate meeting and adding uncertainty to policy assessment. From a market perspective, the absence of October CPI deprives investors of a major short-term inflation signal, potentially increasing volatility risks. In the mid-term, the November CPI—set for release on December 18—will offer a more complete picture of price trends, helping the market and the Federal Reserve reassess the path of future policies. Market expectations generally foresee inflation hovering around 3 percent, and the upcoming data will play a pivotal role in shaping the year-end policy decision. Read More at Datatrack

Latest Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes: Rate Cut Uncertainty and Economic Dynamics

According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October FOMC meeting, policymakers showed clear divisions over the future path of monetary policy. As of mid-November 2025, the federal funds rate remained unchanged at the 3.75 to 4 percent range, and market expectations for a December rate cut had fallen to around 33 percent, indicating weaker support for near-term easing. Recent economic data highlighting labor-market resilience and gradually moderating inflation became key discussion points, leading some officials to argue for waiting for further clarity before adjusting policy. The minutes show that many officials believe additional rate cuts may not be necessary in 2025 and prefer keeping current rates for an extended period to avoid overstimulating the economy or reigniting inflation. A smaller, more hawkish group still supports rate cuts to bolster growth, but the overall tone has shifted toward maintaining the status quo, adding uncertainty to the policy outlook. In the short term, markets expect the Fed to maintain a steady stance without rushing into a new easing cycle. However, policy adjustments remain possible in the medium term depending on economic developments. Investors should closely track upcoming economic indicators and official commentary to assess the direction of future market trends.