TrendForce

2025-01-17

U.S. Retail Sales Misses Expectations in December, Q4 GDP Supported by Labor Market Strength

The latest U.S. retail sales data for December showed resilience despite facing challenges from high interest rates and inflationary pressures. Boosted by the holiday shopping season, most product categories maintained growth. However, the growth rate slightly missed market expectations, indicating that some consumers remained cautious amid the economic environment. The retail sales increased by 3.8% year-over-year (previous: 4.1%) and 0.4% month-over-month (previous: 0.8%)in December, according U.S. Census Bureau on January 17, slightly below the market expectation of 0.6%. Breaking down the details, 10 out of 13 major retail categories recorded growth. Automotive-related sales were particularly strong, growing 8.4% year-over-year (prior: 7.4%) and 0.7% month-over-month (prior: 3.1%). This reflects continued uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies and concerns about the end of EV subsidies, keeping auto sales elevated. Furniture sales also grew significantly, with an 8.4% year-over-year increase (prior: 2.8%) and a 2.3% month-over-month rise (prior: 1.3%), potentially reflecting demand for home rebuilding following hurricanes in October. Meanwhile, online sales continued to grow at a solid pace due to the delayed Cyber Monday this year, rising 6.0% year-over-year (prior: 9.8%) and 0.2% month-over-month (prior: 1.7%). However, Food services & drinking places, which reflect household financial conditions, declined again, with a 2.4% year-over-year increase (prior: 3.1%) and a -0.3% month-over-month change (prior: 0.1%). Sales of building materials also fell, impacted by 30-year mortgage rates returning to 7%, with a -1.8% year-over-year decline (prior: 2.1%) and a -2.0% month-over-month decline (prior: -0.8%). Excluding auto and gasoline sales, core retail sales grew 3.3% year-over-year (prior: 4.1%) and 0.3% month-over-month (prior: 0.2%). Further excluding food services and building materials, control group retail sales increased by 4.1% year-over-year (prior: 4.6%) and 0.7% month-over-month (prior: 0.4%). Read more at Datatrack Overall, most retail categories saw moderate growth in December. While elevated interest rates and price levels continued to pressure lower-income groups and housing-related sales, the U.S. holiday shopping season ended on a relatively strong note, reaffirming the resilience of U.S. consumer spending. Separate Data on January 17 shows that latest jobless claims data slight increase in initial jobless claims to 217,000 (prior: 203,000), while the four-week moving average dropped to 212,750 (prior: 213,000), the lowest level since April of last year. Meanwhile, continuing claims fell to 1,859,000 (prior: 1,877,000). Read more at Datatrack Combined with December’s nonfarm payrolls far exceeding market expectations and the JOLTs layoff rate remaining at historic lows, the U.S. labor market remains robust. With a healthy labor market and resilient consumer spending, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates Q4 GDP to grow at an annualized rate of 3.0%, slightly lower by 0.1 percentage points compared to Q3.

By TrendForce

2025-01-16

U.S. December Core CPI Declines, Market Anticipates Earlier Rate Cuts

The U.S. December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed core inflation falling below market expectations, alleviating fears of a resurgence in inflation. While markets still expect rates to remain unchanged in January, expectations for rate cuts this year have shifted earlier to June. Following the data release, the three major U.S. stock indices rallied, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to approximately 4.6%. The CPI increased by 2.9% year-over-year (prior: 2.7%) in December, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)on January 15, marking the third consecutive monthly increase. Month-over-month rise a 0.4% (prior: 0.3%), both in line with market expectations. Core CPI rose 3.2% year-over-year (prior: 3.3%) and 0.2% month-over-month (prior 0.3%), both below market expectations of 3.3% and 0.3%, respectively. Read more at Datatrack Breaking down the component, the rise in CPI was primarily driven by a sharp increase in energy prices, which rose 2.6% month-over-month (previous 0.2%). However, core goods prices increased by just 0.1% month-over-month (previous 0.3%), failing to sustain the upward momentum from the previous month, offsetting some of the gains from energy prices. Core services prices rose 0.2% month-over-month (unchanged from the previous month), with housing services—the largest component—rising 0.3% month-over-month (unchanged from the previous month). Rent and owners’ equivalent rent also rose to 0.3% month-over-month (previous 0.2%). (Source: BLS) On a year-over-year basis, housing services inflation fell to 4.6% (previous 4.7%), the lowest since January 2022. Rent and owners’ equivalent rent continued to decline, falling to 4.3% (previous 4.4%) and 4.8% (previous 4.9%), respectively. These trends suggest that overall core inflation will continue to decline as new lease rates moderate, though the process is expected to remain gradual. During the Federal Reserve’s December FOMC meeting and economic forecast release, officials raised their inflation forecasts for 2024-2026, reflecting uncertainty surrounding Trump-era tariffs and immigration policies. This move aimed to preemptively anchor market expectations for a higher inflation trajectory. The January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey showed that one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.3% (previous 2.8%), while long-term inflation expectations also increased to 3.3% (previous 3.0%). This forward-guidance strategy contributed to a more positive market reaction when core CPI and the Producer Price Index (PPI), released on January 14, came in below expectations. According to CME FedWatch data, markets maintained expectations for no rate changes in January and a single rate cut this year. However, the timing of the first rate cut has shifted slightly earlier to June (previously July), with a 30% probability of two rate cuts by year-end. Following the data release, U.S. stock indices gained between 1.5% and 2.5%, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased to around 4.6% on expectations of looser monetary policy. Core inflation is expected to decline in the first quarter of 2025 due to high base effects and the dissipation of seasonal factors. The trajectory of core inflation in the second quarter will be critical. If core inflation continues to decline in Q2, it could deliver further positive surprises to the market and bolster expectations for an earlier Fed rate cut.

By TrendForce

2025-01-15

U.S. Debt Ceiling Returns: Renewed Fears of Shutdown and Liquidity?

With the U.S. Debt Ceiling Reinstated on January 2, 2025, Market Concerns Over Raising or Suspending the Debt Ceiling to Avoid Default Have Intensified. On December 27, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a letter to Congress warning that the debt ceiling could be reached between January 14 and January 23. If this happens, the Treasury may need to implement “extraordinary measures” and utilize the Treasury General Account (TGA) cash balance to prevent a technical default and another government shutdown. Notably, the Federal Reserve highlighted in its meeting minutes that the reinstatement of the debt ceiling would complicate the assessment of market liquidity and the impact of quantitative tightening (QT) due to the dynamic interaction between TGA balances, overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ON RRP), and bank reserves. In the short term, the U.S. Treasury is expected to mitigate default risks using the TGA account, temporarily alleviating market liquidity pressures. However, once the X-date is reached and large-scale debt issuance resumes, market liquidity will inevitably tighten. If the Federal Reserve has not concluded QT by the X-date, significant liquidity risks may arise. What is U.S. Debt Ceiling? The U.S. debt ceiling, determined by Congress, sets a statutory limit on the federal government’s borrowing to control debt growth. Established in 1917 to manage wartime fiscal spending, it has since been adjusted or suspended whenever the government needs additional borrowing capacity. However, prolonged legislative procedures often delay debt ceiling adjustments, risking a default and government shutdown. To avert this, the Treasury typically employs “extraordinary measures,” using TGA balances to cover government expenditures. Once these funds are exhausted, the government reaches the “X-date,” facing a technical default and a potential shutdown, causing broader market disruptions. Historically, the likelihood of a U.S. technical default has been low. The debt ceiling often serves more as a political bargaining tool between parties than an actual fiscal constraint. For instance, in January 2023, when the debt ceiling was reached, the Treasury deployed extraordinary measures until June, when Congress passed the “Fiscal Responsibility Act” to suspend the borrowing limit. This scenario mirrored the 2017 debt ceiling episode when the Republican-controlled Congress faced a similar situation. Interaction Between the Debt Ceiling, the Federal Reserve’s Liabilities, and QT The debt ceiling’s reinstatement directly impacts the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, a focal point for investors and policymakers given the Fed’s dual role as a major holder of U.S. Treasuries and executor of monetary policy. The Fed’s balance sheet liabilities can be broadly categorized into three components: Bank Reserves: Funds held by financial institutions in their Fed accounts. Treasury General Account (TGA): The primary account for U.S. government transactions held at the Fed. Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements (ON RRP): A monetary policy tool allowing the Fed to sell securities to counterparties and repurchase them later at a higher price. Read more at Datatrack When the debt ceiling is reinstated and remains unchanged, Treasury issuance is constrained. Consequently, excess government spending must be covered through the TGA account, injecting liquidity into the private and banking sectors. This increases bank reserves and could drive funds into ON RRP as investors seek alternatives amid reduced Treasury issuance. Simultaneously, the Fed’s QT program—allowing bonds to mature without reinvestment—reduces market liquidity as primary dealers, banks, and money market funds absorb new Treasury issuances. This combination of QT and the debt ceiling introduces complex liquidity dynamics: while QT tightens liquidity by withdrawing market funds, TGA spending injects liquidity. These opposing forces obscure the true extent of liquidity tightening, complicating the Fed’s assessment of financial conditions. The Fed’s November meeting minutes emphasized that the debt ceiling’s reinstatement would amplify the challenges of evaluating market liquidity dynamics. Practical Impacts of the Debt Ceiling Reinstatement As of now, the TGA cash balance stands at approximately $652.6 billion. If extraordinary measures are activated in the coming weeks, market consensus suggests the X-date will occur in mid-2025. During the initial phase of extraordinary measures, TGA cash outflows will temporarily ease liquidity constraints, reflected primarily in reduced ON RRP balances as Treasury issuance slows. Bank reserves are expected to remain stable at around $3.2 trillion. After the X-date, the Treasury will need to issue significant amounts of debt to replenish TGA balances, reducing bank reserves and ON RRP balances, thereby tightening overall liquidity. If the Fed has not ended QT by this point, liquidity conditions could worsen, heightening systemic risks and the likelihood of market disruptions. This aligns with December meeting minutes showing market expectations for QT to conclude by Q2 2025. Although the Treasury’s use of extraordinary measures and TGA funds may temporarily alleviate liquidity pressures, the significant debt issuance required after the X-date will inevitably draw funds away from the banking system and money market funds, placing downward pressure on bank reserves and ON RRP balances. If the Fed continues QT during this period, the market will face even greater liquidity risks.

By TrendForce

2025-01-13

Key Focus This Week: U.S. CPI & China GDP

Stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data last week prompted markets to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, placing pressure on rate-sensitive financial and technology stocks. This weighed on the S&P 500, which declined 1.54% to close at 5,827.03. In the bond market, robust employment data pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up by 16 basis points to approximately 4.76%. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index jumped to around 109.6, edging closer to the 110 threshold. Key Economic Data for Last Week U.S. ISM Services PMI: The ISM Services PMI for December came in at 54.0 (prior: 52.1), marking six consecutive months of expansion. Sub-indices showed improvement, with the business activity index rising to 58.2 (prior: 53.7) and the new orders index increasing to 54.2 (prior: 53.7), reflecting resilient demand and early release of orders driven by uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies. The employment index dipped slightly to 51.4 (prior: 51.5) but remained in expansion territory, indicating continued strength in the services labor market. However, robust demand pushed both input and sales prices higher, with the price index surging to 64.4 (prior: 58.2), suggesting that service sector inflation may take longer to ease. Read more at Datatrack U.S. Employment Situation: The December U.S. employment report significantly exceeded market expectations. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 256,000 (prior: 212,000), driven by employment gains in services sectors such as education and healthcare (+80,000), retail trade (+43,400), and leisure and hospitality (+43,000). Manufacturing, however, continued to decline, with a loss of 13,000 jobs. Household survey data showed a 478,000 increase in employed persons and a 235,000 decline in unemployed persons, pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.1% (prior: 4.2%). The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.5%, and the share of unemployed workers who lost their jobs held steady at 47.2% (prior: 47.7%), highlighting the continued robustness of the labor market. Read more at Datatrack U.S. Fed December FOMC Meeting Minutes: The minutes shows that officials expect the labor market to remain strong. However, they indicated that potential changes in trade and immigration policies could heighten inflationary risks and delay the timeline for inflation to return to target. This outlook underscores the need for a more cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments. Key Economic Data for This Week U.S. December CPI (1/15): Supported by low base effects in Q4 and rising ISM services price indices in December, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland forecasts U.S. December CPI to rise 2.86% year-on-year (previous 2.75%), with core CPI expected to grow 3.28% year-on-year (previous 3.32%). Read more at Datatrack U.S. December Retail Sales (1/16): Driven by the traditional Q4 holiday shopping season and early demand release for durable goods, such as automobiles, due to uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies, retail sales are expected to grow 3.7% year-on-year (previous 3.8%) and 0.6% month-on-month (previous 0.7%). Read more at Datatrack China December Monthly Data (1/17): With the continuation of industrial equipment upgrade policies and consumer goods trade-in incentives, markets expect industrial output to grow by 5.4% year-on-year in December. Retail sales are forecast to increase by 3.5% year-on-year (previous 3.0%), supported by subsidies for automobiles and home appliances. Fixed-asset investment is expected to grow by 3.3% year-on-year amid weak local government fiscal. Meanwhile, Q4 GDP is projected to accelerate to 5.0% year-on-year (Q3: 4.6%), driven by stimulus policies and front-loaded exports due to Trump’s tariff measures, with full-year 2024 GDP expected to grow by 4.8% (2023: 5.2%). Read more at Datatrack

By TrendForce

2025-01-10

Japan’s Real Households Spending Declines for Four Consecutive Months, Highlighting BOJ’s Rate Hike Dilemma

Japan November Real average household consumption for two-or-more-person households decreased by 0.4% year-on-year (previous -1.3%), marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline, according to Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on January 10. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) officially ended its negative interest rate policy in March last year, citing the emergence of a virtuous cycle between wage growth and price increases. However, amid a weakening yen and rising inflation driven by the removal of energy subsidies, consumers are still compressing their spending under cost pressures, preventing a significant recovery in consumption expenditure. While November wage data showed nominal wages rising by 3.0% year-on-year, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and marking the largest increase in over 30 years, inflation continued to outpace wage growth. Real wages declined by 0.3% year-on-year (previous -0.4%), also marking the fourth consecutive monthly decrease. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated at the December post-meeting press conference that the timing of the next rate hike would depend on the results of the preliminary shunto wage negotiations in March-April and changes in U.S. economic policies. This statement was interpreted by markets as an indication that the BOJ is likely to delay its next rate hike until March. However, the BOJ’s quarterly report released on January 9 highlighted that labor shortages and minimum wage increases are progressively spreading the importance of wage growth across businesses of all sizes and industries. This suggests that the BOJ may already see sustained wage growth potential ahead of March. Overall, The BOJ faces a difficult choice: raising rates earlier could help temper inflation and guide it toward moderate growth, but with wage increases still uncertain, it risks further pressuring already weak consumption. On the other hand, delaying rate hikes could allow inflation to rise further, eroding consumers’ wage gains and real purchasing power. These conflicting factors create significant uncertainty over whether the BOJ will opt for a rate hike in January or March. Read more at Datatrack

By TrendForce

2025-01-09

Fed FOMC Minutes: Uncertainty Around Trump’s Policies Increases Inflationary Risks

The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its December FOMC meeting on January 8. The key highlights are as follows: Inflation May Take Longer to Decline Fed officials noted that the growth rate of core goods and non-housing services inflation has begun to stabilize. While housing services prices remain elevated, they are expected to decline as growth in new lease rents continues to slow, eventually pulling housing inflation downward. Regarding the inflation outlook, officials generally expect inflation to continue moving toward the 2% target. However, they highlighted that higher-than-expected recent inflation readings, along with potential changes in trade and immigration policies, could prolong the disinflation process. Given the significant uncertainty surrounding the scope, timing, and economic effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policies, some officials have incorporated certain policy assumptions into their inflation projections. Labor Market Remains Stable Fed officials broadly agreed that the labor market remains steady. Indicators such as job openings, quit rates, the pace at which unemployed individuals find jobs, and reduced labor turnover reflect a gradual softening in labor demand by businesses. However, low layoff rates indicate that the labor market has not shown signs of rapid deterioration. Looking ahead, most officials anticipate the labor market will remain stable, though some highlighted significant uncertainty regarding its outlook. A few officials noted the potential for further weakening, as recent employment growth may fall below the level needed to maintain the current unemployment rate. Cautious Approach to Monetary Policy Adjustments Officials indicated that the Federal Reserve is at or near a stage where it should slow the pace of monetary easing, given that interest rates have already been reduced by 100 basis points (bps) and are closer to neutral rates than in September. Factors such as elevated inflation, robust consumer spending, reduced downside risks in the labor market, and heightened upside risks to inflation suggest that future monetary policy adjustments should be approached with greater caution. balance sheet reduction According to the Fed's survey, market expectations for the end of balance sheet reduction have been pushed further out, with most participants now anticipating the process to conclude in June 2025 (compared to the previous projection of Q1 2025). Summary As President-elect Trump prepares to reenter the White House, Fed officials anticipate increased inflationary risks due to potential changes in trade and immigration policies. They also expect inflation to take longer to decline than previously projected. Consequently, the Fed is likely to adopt a more cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments in the coming quarters. Following the release of the minutes, FedWatch data indicated that markets maintain a 95% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in January, with the expected rate cut for the year narrowing to 25 bps.

By TrendForce

2025-01-08

U.S. December Services PMI Rebound, Price Index Hits Two-Year High

With only two weeks remaining until President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House, market concerns over his potential tariff policies continue to intensify. However, the latest U.S. services PMI data indicates that demand remains resilient, with uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies prompting early demand release, driving increases in new orders and business activity indices. The U.S. December services PMI stood at 54.0 (prior: 52.1), marking six consecutive months of expansion, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on January 7, and it exceeding market expectations of 53.5. Among the sub-indices, the business activity index rose to 58.2 (prior: 53.7), while the new orders index climbed to 54.2 (prior: 53.7), both ending a two-month decline. This rebound reflects not only the underlying strength of demand but also seasonal year-end factors and uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies, which spurred early demand. The supplier delivery time index returned to expansion at 52.5 (prior: 49.5), driven not only by the aforementioned factors but also by renewed labor negotiations at U.S. ports on January 7, which further delayed delivery times. The employment index dipped slightly to 51.4 (prior: 51.5) but remained in expansion territory, highlighting the continued robustness of the services labor market. This aligns with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) data released the same day, which showed job openings rising to 8.098 million in November, an increase of 259,000 from the prior month. Professional and business services (+273,000) and finance and insurance (+105,000) contributed most significantly to the increase. In other sub-indices, the price index surged to 64.4 (prior: 58.2), marking the 91st consecutive month of expansion. This reflects strong services demand driving both input costs and sales prices higher. However, the sharp rise in prices suggests that easing service sector inflation may be more challenging, adding to the Federal Reserve’s cautiousness in future rate cut decisions. Overall, as Trump’s return to the White House approaches, uncertainty over tariff policies has prompted early demand release, boosting the indices for business activity, new orders, and supplier delivery times. As the services sector accounts for nearly 80% of U.S. GDP, its strong performance capped a robust fourth quarter of economic growth. Nevertheless, with downside economic risks diminishing and service sector inflationary pressures rising, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady in January have strengthened further. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged has risen to 95.2%. In response, the S&P 500 index dropped 1.1%, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.68%, nearing the critical 4.7% threshold. Read more at Datatrack

By TrendForce

2025-01-07

Manufacturing PMI Recap: US, China, EU, Japan & Korea (Latest)

Key manufacturing data from major economies, including the U.S., China, Japan, and the Eurozone, revealed continued divergence in global manufacturing performance in December. While U.S. demand showed signs of recovery with new orders and production returning to expansion, the Eurozone remained mired in contraction due to weak demand and heightened political uncertainty. In Asia, China maintained expansion for the third consecutive month, supported by policy measures, though internal demand stimulation remained limited. Meanwhile, Japan showed optimism for the future despite sustained contraction, and South Korea returned to contraction as both domestic and external demand weakened. United States: Demand Rebounds, but Industry Divergence Persists The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for December rose to 49.3 (prior: 48.4), marking the ninth consecutive month in contraction but also the highest reading in nine months. Sub-indices revealed encouraging trends, with the new orders index climbing to 52.5 (prior: 50.4) and the production index returning to expansion at 50.3 (prior: 46.8). The supplier delivery index also improved to 50.1 (prior: 48.7). Inventory levels rose slightly, with the inventory index at 48.8 (prior: 48.3), while the new orders-to-inventory ratio widened to 5.8 (prior: 1.9), indicating an overall improvement in demand. However, demand conditions varied significantly across industries. While strong demand in computers, electronics, and electrical equipment offset weaknesses in food, transportation equipment, and fabricated metals, the overall recovery momentum remained uneven. Read more at Datatrack Euro Area: Weak Demand and Political Instability Deepen Contraction The Eurozone's December Markit PMI stood at 45.1 (previous 45.2), reflecting further deterioration in new orders and production. The production index posted its largest decline since October 2023, while inventories were depleted at an accelerating pace without signs of replenishment. Employment contraction eased slightly but remained significant, and stagnant input prices led firms to lower output prices further to stay competitive. Germany: The December Markit PMI dropped to 42.5 (prior: 43.0), with political instability and concerns over U.S. tariff policies exacerbating contractions in new orders and production, both hitting their largest declines in 2024. Employment and backlogs also fell amid weakening demand. France: The Markit PMI fell to 41.9 (prior: 43.1), the lowest since May 2020, as political uncertainty following government instability further dampened demand. Companies accelerated inventory reductions, resulting in the steepest decline since 2009, while production and new orders continued to contract. Business confidence remained subdued. Italy: The Markit PMI edged up to 46.2 (prior: 45.5), reflecting weak Eurozone demand alongside high energy costs and intensified competition in the automotive sector. Firms continued to deplete inventories despite modest cost growth, while weak demand pushed output prices lower. Read more at Datatrack China: Third Consecutive Month of Expansion, but Limited Policy Impact on Domestic Demand China’s Manufacturing PMI for December registered at 50.1 (prior 50.3), maintaining expansion for the third straight month but slightly below market expectations of 50.3. Sub-indices showed continued growth in production (52.1, previous 52.4) and new orders (51.0, previous 50.8), driven by policies promoting consumer goods trade-ins and industrial equipment upgrades. However, employment (48.2, prior 48.1) remained in contraction, and the new orders-to-customer inventory ratio fell to 3.1 (prior 3.4), reflecting limited effectiveness of stimulus measures in boosting internal demand. Increased market competition and overcapacity led to further declines in input prices (48.2, prior 49.8) and output prices (46.7, prior 47.7), sustaining deflationary risks. Read more at Datatrack ▶ Read More China's Manufacturing PMI Expands for the Third Consecutive Month in December Japan: Sixth Consecutive Month of Contraction, but Optimism Persists Japan’s December Manufacturing PMI was 49.6 (prior: 49.0), marking six consecutive months of contraction as new orders and production continued to shrink. Despite this, employment growth reached its highest level since April 2024. However, declining backlogs and ongoing inventory reductions indicated persistent demand weakness. The yen's depreciation further pushed up input costs, prompting firms to pass on higher prices to customers, resulting in the fastest output price growth in five months. Nonetheless, businesses remained optimistic about future production expansion, particularly in the automotive and semiconductor sectors. Read more at Datatrack South Korea: Weak Demand and Record Low Business Confidence South Korea’s December Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 (prior: 50.6), reflecting weaker domestic conditions and slowing demand from the U.S. and China. New orders and production declined further, while export orders showed only modest growth. Inflationary pressures intensified, and firms raised output prices at the fastest rate since November 2023. Beyond economic challenges, uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies heightened concerns for South Korea’s manufacturing sector. Business confidence for the next 12 months turned negative for the first time since July 2020. Excluding the COVID-19 period, it was the lowest level recorded since the survey began in 2012. Global manufacturing in December continued to show pronounced divergence. In the U.S., manufacturing remained in contraction for the ninth month, but production and new orders returned to expansion, signaling initial signs of a demand rebound. However, industry-specific disparities highlighted uneven recovery momentum. In contrast, the Eurozone faced deepening contraction driven by weak demand and political uncertainty, with Germany, France, and Italy remaining the hardest-hit regions. Meanwhile, China sustained its expansion for the third month, but internal demand stimulation remained limited. Japan exhibited resilience in business sentiment despite prolonged contraction, while South Korea faced mounting challenges with weakened demand and record-low business confidence.

By TrendForce

2025-01-06

Key Focus This Weeks: U.S. NMI & Nonfarm Payrolls

Last week, U.S. energy stocks surged significantly, driven by a decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and increased refining demand in Asia. However, other sectors experienced volatility, leading to a slight 0.48% decline in the S&P 500 index, which closed at 5,942.46. In the bond market, expectations of continued strong U.S. economic growth and uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook under former President Trump's policies kept the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield steady at around 4.6%. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index rose further to 108.9, nearing the 109 threshold. Key Economic Data for Last Week China PMI: China's December Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1 (prior 50.3), marking the third consecutive month of expansion but slightly below market expectations of 50.3. Sub-index details showed continued expansion in production (52.1, down from 52.4) and new orders (51.0, up from 50.8), supported by policies promoting consumer goods trade-ins and industrial equipment upgrades. However, inventories (48.3, up from 48.2) and employment (48.2, up from 48.1) remained in contraction territory. The new orders-to-inventory ratio also declined to 3.1 (previous 3.4), indicating limited policy impact on internal demand. Business confidence remained subdued, with the production and business activity expectations index falling further to 53.3 (previous 54.7). Read more at Datatrack U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI :The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for December rose to 49.3 (prior 48.4), marking the ninth consecutive month of contraction but also the highest reading in nine months. Sub-index details showed that the new orders index extended its expansion trend at 52.5 (prior 50.4), while the production index (50.3, up from 46.8) and supplier delivery time index (50.1, up from 48.7) returned to expansion territory. Inventory levels improved, with the inventory index rising to 48.8 (prior 48.3), and the new orders minus inventory widening to 5.8 (prior 1.9), signaling better overall demand. However, demand conditions varied across industries. Sectors such as food, transportation equipment, and fabricated metals reported weaker demand, while robust demand in computers, electronics, and electrical equipment offset the softness in other sectors. Read more at Datatrack Key Economic Data for This Week U.S. ISM Services PMI (1/7): Supported by the seasonal momentum of the Q4 traditional consumption peak, the ISM Services PMI for December is expected to show moderate growth at 53.2 (previous 52.1). Read more at Datatrack Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes (1/9): In December, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected and narrowed its 2025 rate cut trajectory from four to two cuts. The focus of the meeting minutes will be on how the Fed evaluates the economic impact of future policies under former President Trump and whether there is further discussion on initiating balance sheet reduction. U.S. December Employment Situation（1/10）：Recent data showed initial jobless claims falling to an eight-month low, with companies maintaining low levels of layoffs and hiring freezes, reflecting a balanced labor market. Markets expect nonfarm payrolls to grow moderately by 154,000 (previous 227,000), while the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain at a historically low level of 4.2% (unchanged from the previous month). Read more at Datatrack

By TrendForce