Datatrack - Blog

2025-12-11

China’s November CPI Hits 21-Month High

The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 rose 0.7% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from October’s 0.2%, marking the highest level in nearly 21 months since March 2024 and meeting market expectations. The month-on-month rate unexpectedly fell 0.1%, ending the previous month’s upward trend, mainly due to seasonal declines in service prices. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 1.2% year-on-year, remaining above 1% for the third consecutive month, indicating stable underlying consumer demand. Detailed data: Food prices: up 0.2% year-on-year, ending the prior month’s 2.9% year-on-year decline. Fresh vegetable prices rose 14.5% (contributing about 0.31 percentage points), aquatic products increased 1.5%, fresh fruits rose 0.7%, while pork fell 15% but with a narrowing decline. Non-food prices: up 0.8% year-on-year, with consumer goods up 0.6% and services up 0.7%; CPI in urban areas rose 0.7% year-on-year, rural areas 0.4%. Main drivers of CPI rebound: weather-driven vegetable price increases, appliance and automobile sales boosted by trade-in policies, and the effect of measures to expand domestic demand. However, weak domestic demand, a sluggish housing market, and overcapacity continue to suppress overall price momentum. The November CPI increase indicates a slight easing of deflationary pressure, with food price recovery and stable core indicators providing support. However, the Producer Price Index (PPI) has fallen for 38 consecutive months, down 2.2%, highlighting upstream deflation risks. In the short term (1–2 months), CPI is expected to maintain moderate positive growth, but may retreat to 0.2%–0.5% due to post-holiday demand softening and base effects. In the medium term (within six months), if policies continue to stimulate consumption, CPI could stabilize at 0.5%–1.0%, though risks from the real estate sector and global demand fluctuations remain. Read More at Datatrack

By ariachiang

2025-12-10

US October JOLTS Job Openings Edge Up to 7.67 Million, Labor Market Stabilizing

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October 2025 JOLTS report on December 9. Total job openings rose slightly to 7.67 million, a five month high, inching up from September and increasing by about 470,000 from roughly 7.2 million in August. The data suggests the labor market is gradually stabilizing after the government shutdown. The job openings rate remained at 4.6 percent, below the pre pandemic average but about 5 percent lower than the same period last year. Hiring and total separations both held steady at around 5.1 million, while the quits rate stayed at 3.2 percent, reflecting employers’ cautious hiring stance and still low worker mobility. Key details for October JOLTS: Total job openings reached 7.67 million with modest growth; gains were concentrated in trade, transportation, and retail due to mild holiday season demand, while federal government openings fell by 25,000 month over month. Quits totaled about 2.9 million, with a quits rate of 1.8 percent, flat month over month but down 276,000 year over year; accommodation and food services decreased by 136,000, and healthcare and social assistance decreased by 114,000. Layoffs and discharges were 1.9 million, with a rate of 1.2 percent, unchanged from the prior month; accommodation and food services increased by 130,000 due to the government shutdown and the delayed Thanksgiving period. Small businesses saw an increase in openings, but the ADP report showed 24,000 layoffs in October, with hiring still lagging. Construction demand weakened, with hiring, quits, and layoffs all falling. Although annual wage growth increased, the sector was dragged by a shortage of immigrant labor. The overall hiring rate was 3.2 percent, lower than the pre pandemic average of 3.9 percent, reflecting employers’ cautious economic outlook. The October JOLTS data indicates that the labor market is stabilizing, with no significant deterioration in quits or layoff rates. It signals “still tight but cooling conditions,” reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to begin rate cuts at the FOMC meeting tonight. In the near term, this slightly resilient employment structure, combined with wage and services inflation still above target, reinforces the Fed’s stance of holding rates steady and emphasizing data dependence. Market expectations for a rate cut before year end may be revised down further, with the first cut more likely to be postponed to next year and heavily dependent on the performance of upcoming nonfarm payrolls, inflation data, and new JOLTS reports over the next one to two months. Read More at Datatrack

By ariachiang

2025-12-08

Japan Q3 GDP Revised to 2.3% Annualized Contraction

Japan’s Cabinet Office released the revised GDP figures for the third quarter of 2025 (July to September) on December 8. Real GDP contracted 0.6 percent from the previous quarter, or an annualized 2.3 percent decline, worse than the market’s median forecast of a 2.0 percent drop and the largest decrease since the third quarter of 2023. Compared with the preliminary estimates of a 0.4 percent quarterly decline and a 1.8 percent annualized drop, the revised figures indicate a sharper downturn, mainly due to weaker-than-expected corporate spending, falling exports, and reduced public investment. The impact of U.S. President Trump’s tariff policy on automobile exports is seen as another significant drag on the economy. Breakdown data point to broad-based weakness across Japan’s economy: Private consumption grew only 0.1 percent, slowing from 0.4 percent in the previous quarter, affected by higher rice prices and electricity costs. Exports declined, pressured by U.S. tariffs and travel advisories affecting Chinese tourists. Public investment decreased, corporate capital expenditure fell short of expectations, and housing investment weakened due to new regulatory measures. Nominal GDP reached 63.582 trillion yen, slightly above the previous quarter’s 63.502 trillion yen, though real growth remained stagnant. Overall, the revised third-quarter GDP results highlight the challenges Japan faces from external trade pressures and subdued domestic demand, signaling weakening economic momentum. In the short term (one to two months), the November economic sentiment index fell to 48.7, suggesting that exports and consumption may remain soft amid tariff effects and price pressures. Over the medium term (within six months), real GDP growth is expected to be around 0.7 percent, with private consumption and capital investment gradually recovering. However, the outlook will depend on progress in U.S.–Japan trade negotiations and the yen’s trajectory; any easing of tariff pressures would improve stabilization prospects. Read More at Datatrack

By ariachiang

2025-12-05

US Initial Jobless Claims Drop to Lowest Level in More Than Three Years

The latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that for the week ending November 29, 2025, initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 27,000 to 191,000, a significant drop from the previous week’s 218,000. This represents a 12.4 percent decline from a year earlier and marks the lowest level since September 2022. The figure came in well below the market expectation of 220,000 and has now declined for four consecutive weeks, indicating that layoffs in the labor market continue to ease, countering earlier concerns from some independent surveys about weak employment conditions in November. The four-week moving average also fell from 224,250 to 214,750, a monthly decline of roughly 4.3 percent, further suggesting resilience in the job market. Continuing claims for unemployment benefits edged down by 4,000 to 1.939 million, a slight decrease from the previous period but still relatively elevated. Initial claims by federal employees dropped to 1,125 from 1,724, down about 35 percent year over year, reflecting the fading impact of the government shutdown. Short-term factors contributing to the decline in initial claims include: Seasonal fluctuations during the Thanksgiving period reducing temporary layoffs. Although corporate hiring is slowing, the pace of layoffs is also decreasing, keeping the labor market stable. Large declines previously seen in states such as California and Georgia offset volatility in other areas, keeping continuing claims steady. The fading impact of hurricanes and other short-term events, with data returning to normal levels. Because seasonal adjustments around the Thanksgiving holiday are difficult to calibrate accurately, last week’s initial claims data may contain distortions. Overall, the drop in initial jobless claims to a more-than-three-year low indicates reduced layoff pressure and helps alleviate recent concerns about weakening employment momentum. Over the next one to two months, the data is expected to fluctuate at a low level between 190,000 and 220,000, influenced by holiday effects and the typical year-end hiring slowdown. However, barring major shocks, the unemployment rate is expected to hold around 4.1 percent. In the medium term, as the Federal Reserve shifts policy and the economy improves, initial claims may gradually rise to around 270,000, though the overall job market is still expected to remain healthy and unlikely to trigger recession risks. Read More at Datatrack

By ariachiang

2025-12-04

US ISM Services PMI Rises in November

US November ISM Services PMI came in at 52.6, a slight increase from October’s 52.4 and higher than 52.1 in the same period last year. This marks the fifth consecutive month in expansion territory. The data indicates the services sector is still maintaining growth momentum, though the overall pace remains moderate without signs of clear acceleration. Sub-indexes showed mixed performance: The Supplier Deliveries Index rose to 54.1 (previous: 50.8), reflecting slower delivery times, partly due to the government shutdown and tariff adjustments. The Prices Index fell from 70 to 65.4, indicating a modest easing in inflationary pressures. The Employment Index increased to 48.9 (previous: 48.2). Although still in contraction, it reached the highest level since May 2025, suggesting improving labor conditions. The New Orders Index came in at 52.9, down 3.3 points from October’s 56.2, signaling slower growth after consecutive months of expansion. External factors such as trade tariffs, policy uncertainty, and transportation disruptions continue to add volatility to supply chains. Overall, the November ISM Services PMI remained in expansion, indicating short-term resilience in the US services sector. Growth is expected to stay moderate over the next one to two months, supported by holiday demand, though changes in government policy and tariffs remain key uncertainties. In the mid-term, the services industry may benefit from economic recovery and improving consumption, but global supply chain and geopolitical risks could continue to pose challenges. Read More at Datatrack

By ariachiang

2025-12-01

China's November Manufacturing PMI Below Breakeven Line for Eighth Consecutive Month

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached 49.2 percent in November 2025, rising 0.2 percentage points from October but remaining below the 50 expansion threshold for the eighth consecutive month, marking the longest contraction streak since the early COVID outbreak in 2020. Meanwhile, the Ratingdog China Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.5 percent, up 1.2 percentage points from October and the highest level since July, surpassing market expectations of 50.6 percent. This indicates a faster recovery in activity among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Overall, the official data show persistent pressure on large enterprises, while the Ratingdog index suggests more visible improvement among SMEs. Economic momentum remains weak, though policy effects have begun to surface. Production-related PMI sub-indices: The production index stood at 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, ending its consecutive period of contraction; the new orders index was 49.2%, rising 0.4 percentage points month on month but still in contraction territory. The PMI for large enterprises was 49.3%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; medium-sized enterprises recorded 48.9%, up 0.2 percentage points; small enterprises came in at 49.1%, rising 2.0 percentage points. The high-tech manufacturing PMI remained at 50.1%, staying above the expansion-contraction threshold for ten consecutive months; the production and business activity expectations index rose to 53.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Overall, the movements in the sub-indices were mainly driven by the continued effects of existing policies and the introduction of additional supportive measures. Real estate sector adjustments weighed on large enterprises, US tariff uncertainties suppressed export orders, and weak domestic demand combined with the seasonal consumption lull added pressure. In contrast, Ratingdog data show that SMEs benefited from fiscal support, with improving new export orders helping to fuel expansion. China’s manufacturing sector in November displayed a diverging pattern: official data continued to show contraction, while the Ratingdog index pointed to a recovery led by SMEs. In the short term (1 to 2 months), the PMI is expected to fluctuate between 49.5 and 51.0, with year-end stimulus measures and the export off-season keeping large enterprises under strain, though SME expansion may continue. In the medium term (within six months), if additional policy measures are implemented more rapidly and US-China trade tensions ease, the manufacturing sector could return to expansion. However, the sluggish property market and slowing global demand remain key risks, and attention will be needed to see whether December data signal a turning point. Read More at Datatrack

By ariachiang

2025-11-28

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Hits Second-Lowest Level in History

In November 2025, the University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index was revised up to 51, slightly above the preliminary reading of 50.3, yet still marking the second-lowest level on record, close to the lowest point in June 2022. Compared with October's 53.6, sentiment has declined noticeably, reflecting consumers’ cautious outlook amid persistently high prices and slowing income growth. Detailed data show that the current conditions index fell sharply by 12.8% to 51.1, reaching the lowest level in the survey’s history, mainly due to deteriorating assessments of personal financial situations and conditions for purchasing durable goods. Meanwhile, the consumer expectations index rose slightly by 1.4% to 51. Key factors include: Persistent high price pressures. Slower income growth, increasing household financial strain. Inflation expectations continue to decline, estimated at around 4.5% over the next year, falling for three consecutive months but still above the Fed’s target. Recent market volatility affecting investment confidence, thereby influencing consumer sentiment. Overall, consumer sentiment indicates that post-pandemic economic recovery remains uneven. In the short term (1–2 months), the market may continue to fluctuate, as confidence takes time to recover and employment concerns persist. In the medium term (within six months), if inflation continues to ease and the labor market stabilizes, consumer expectations may improve, but high living costs and income pressures will remain key points to watch. Read More at Datatrack

By ariachiang

2025-11-26

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Unexpectedly Plummets in November

In November 2025, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s manufacturing composite index fell sharply from -4 in October to -15, far below the expected -2, indicating a rapid deterioration in regional manufacturing activity. The shipments index dropped from 4 to -14, new orders declined from -6 to -22, and capacity utilization fell from -10 to -18. Backlogs and finished goods inventories continued to weaken, reflecting insufficient production momentum and signaling renewed contractionary pressure for the sector. This downturn poses challenges for the broader Mid-Atlantic regional economy. The decline was primarily driven by weakening demand and rising costs. Softer market demand reduced both orders and shipments, while traditional industries faced intensified domestic and international competition. Production was further constrained by line adjustments and maintenance activities. On the cost side, persistent increases in raw material and energy prices added to manufacturers’ burdens. Although the employment index saw a slight uptick, labor market tightness continued to limit production capacity. In the near term, demand volatility and elevated costs are likely to continue weighing on manufacturing activity, slowing the pace of recovery. The medium-term outlook depends on whether inflation pressures ease and global supply chains stabilize; improvements on these fronts could help the sector regain balance. Monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve and broader economic conditions will remain key indicators. Investors and policymakers should closely monitor upcoming data to adjust strategies amid ongoing uncertainty.

By ariachiang

2025-11-21

U.S. Delays September Nonfarm Payroll Report: Employment Stabilizes, Unemployment Slightly Rises

In September, U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000, rebounding sharply from the revised August figure of -4,000 and surpassing the market expectation of a 50,000 increase. The unemployment rate edged up from 4.3% to 4.4%, an unusual situation where employment rises while the unemployment rate also climbs. The year-on-year growth of average hourly earnings remained at 3.8%, indicating that wage pressures have not eased significantly. This serves as an important data point for observing changes in the U.S. labor market and economy. Detailed Data and Influencing Factors: The labor force participation rate slightly rose from 62.3% to 62.4%, reflecting increased market activity. August employment data was revised from 22,000 to -4,000, and July data was lowered by 7,000, resulting in a total two-month decline of 33,000 jobs. The private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding the expected 25,000, but layoffs surged by 183.1%, reflecting short-term labor market volatility and structural adjustments. The data shows that the U.S. labor market exhibits both resilience and uncertainty. In the short term (1–2 months), since the employment data for October and November will be released late due to the government shutdown, the Fed will be unable to reference the latest complete figures for these two months. As a result, the Fed may delay or cancel its rate-cut plans in December, and the stock market could face significant correction risks. Over the medium term (within six months), the outcome will depend on the labor market’s persistence and inflationary pressures. The Fed may adjust its policies again in early 2026 to respond to economic shifts. Read More at Datatrack

By ariachiang

China’s November CPI Hits 21-Month High

US October JOLTS Job Openings Edge Up to 7.67 Million, Labor Market Stabilizing

Japan Q3 GDP Revised to 2.3% Annualized Contraction

US Initial Jobless Claims Drop to Lowest Level in More Than Three Years

US ISM Services PMI Rises in November

China's November Manufacturing PMI Below Breakeven Line for Eighth Consecutive Month​

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Hits Second-Lowest Level in History

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Unexpectedly Plummets in November

U.S. Delays September Nonfarm Payroll Report: Employment Stabilizes, Unemployment Slightly Rises

China's November Manufacturing PMI Below Breakeven Line for Eighth Consecutive Month