AI Data Insight
The year-over-year growth rate of US real personal consumption expenditures (services) in the fourth quarter of 2025 reached 2.3%, slowing significantly from 2.9% in the same period of the previous year, indicating a gradual cooling of overall consumption momentum. Despite headwinds from high interest rates and the government shutdown, subcategories such as health care, recreation, and financial services remained supported by wealthy households. Looking ahead, under the depletion of excess savings and price pressures, services consumption is expected to maintain moderate growth, but attention must be paid to the risk of balance sheet contraction among low-income groups.