United States: Resignation Prediction: Average Probability of Unemployment

Macro

2026-09-09

Description

-

Published by
Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Choice)
Frequency
Monthly
Next Update

AI Data Insight

According to the latest data, in Q3 2026 (August), the average probability perceived by US individuals of losing their jobs over the next year fell to 13.84%, a further decline from the previous 14.17%, hitting a new low since February of this year. However, a New York Fed survey shows that public expectation of a rising national unemployment rate has reached a new high since 2020. This polarized phenomenon of "personal stability, overall pessimism" will become a critical consideration ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting.

AI Data Insight

According to the latest data, in Q3 2026 (August), the average probability perceived by US individuals of losing their jobs over the next year fell to 13.84%, a further decline from the previous 14.17%, hitting a new low since February of this year. However, a New York Fed survey shows that public expectation of a rising national unemployment rate has reached a new high since 2020. This polarized phenomenon of "personal stability, overall pessimism" will become a critical consideration ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting.

Description

-

Published by
Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Choice)
Frequency
Monthly
Next Update