United States: Resignation Prediction: Average Probability of Unemployment

Macro

2026-08-08

Description

-

Published by
Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Choice)
Frequency
Monthly
Next Update

AI Data Insight

According to the latest data, the mean probability of US consumers losing their job over the next year slightly increased to 14.1763% in the third quarter of 2026, slightly higher than the 14.1391% of the previous quarter. Although market concerns about the weakening of the overall employment environment have increased, this data remains below the moving average level of the past year. This indicates that while the US job market shows signs of slowing down under the Federal Reserve's current policies, public confidence in finding new employment in the future remains solid.

AI Data Insight

According to the latest data, the mean probability of US consumers losing their job over the next year slightly increased to 14.1763% in the third quarter of 2026, slightly higher than the 14.1391% of the previous quarter. Although market concerns about the weakening of the overall employment environment have increased, this data remains below the moving average level of the past year. This indicates that while the US job market shows signs of slowing down under the Federal Reserve's current policies, public confidence in finding new employment in the future remains solid.

Description

-

Published by
Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Choice)
Frequency
Monthly
Next Update