AI Data Insight

In Q3 2026, the 3-month moving average of the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3) rose to 0.03, further advancing from 0.01 in the previous period. The single-month index also turned positive from negative, primarily driven by the recovery in production and sales. The latest data is well above the recession warning threshold of -0.70, indicating that the US economy continues to show expansionary resilience and has successfully avoided recession risks.

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