AI Data Insight
The newly released 3-month moving average of the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3) for Q2 2026 edged down to -0.05, slightly lower than the previous value of -0.03, indicating that economic activity is slightly below its historical trend. Although the production and employment sub-components showed negative contributions, the overall data remains well above the -0.70 recession warning line. Institutions expect that, supported by consumption momentum and a robust labor market, the US economy will maintain a soft landing pattern of moderate expansion.