Datatrack - Blog

2026-02-21

US Q4 GDP Plummets to 1.4% Missing Expectations; Government Shutdown and Weak Exports Main Causes

The US real GDP annualized growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2025 slowed significantly to 1.4%, far below the previous quarter's 4.4% and the market consensus expectation of 2.8%. The weak data was primarily caused by a sharp reduction in government spending due to the federal government shutdown in October-November, combined with a drag from declining exports; however, private consumption maintained 2.4% growth, indicating that domestic demand remains resilient.

By AI Insights

2026-02-20

Japan's December CPI Plunges to 1.5% Falling Below Central Bank Target; Energy Subsidies Suppress Inflation Expectations

Japan's December Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate slid sharply from the previous 2.1% to 1.5%, marking a new low in nearly four years and falling below the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target. This sudden decline was primarily driven by the government's resumption of energy subsidies and moderating food price gains. Market assessments suggest this will reduce the urgency for the BOJ to raise interest rates in the short term, as the shadow of deflation threatens to loom once again.

By AI Insights

2026-02-20

US Trade Deficit Widens to $70.3 Billion in November, AI Equipment Demand and Tariff Expectations Boost Imports

The US trade deficit widened significantly from $56.8 billion in the previous month to $70.3 billion in November, returning to the high levels seen in the second half of the year. The primary drivers were a surge in imports of computers and capital equipment driven by AI data center construction, combined with businesses stocking up in advance of potential tariff policies, which offset the impact of weak exports.

By AI Insights

2026-02-20

Initial Jobless Claims Plunge to 206,000, Beating Market Expectations and Dispelling Weather Interference Gloom

This week, US initial jobless claims were recorded at 206,000, far below market expectations of 223,000, and significantly retreated by 21,000 from the previous value, hitting a new low for the year. This data corrected the seasonal volatility caused by blizzards in the previous two weeks, confirming that the labor market remains in a robust state of "low layoffs."

By AI Insights

2026-02-20

US Continuing Jobless Claims Rise to 1.869 Million, Beating Expectations; "Low-Layoff, Low-Hiring" Pattern Established

For the week ending February 6, US continuing jobless claims climbed to 1.869 million, an increase of 7,000 from the previous reading of 1.862 million, slightly higher than market expectations of 1.86 million. Although the unexpected sharp drop in initial claims indicates that a wave of layoffs has not materialized, the continued consolidation of continuing claims implies increased difficulty for the unemployed to find re-employment, with the labor market currently in a cooling phase of "hiring freezes."

By AI Insights

2026-02-19

Durable Goods Orders Drop 1.4% in November but Beat Expectations, AI CapEx Emerges as a Highlight

U.S. durable goods orders fell 1.4% month-over-month in November. While this ended the previous month's surge of 5.3%, the decline was smaller than the market expectation of 2%. The volatility was primarily driven by a pullback in transportation orders, while core capital goods (non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft) benefited from AI data center construction demand, exhibiting investment resilience.

By AI Insights

2026-02-18

Japan Dec Exports Jump 16.8% YoY to 3-Year High, AI Chip Demand Offsets Auto Sector Headwinds

Japan's December export growth rate surprisingly jumped to 16.8% year-on-year from the previous 5.1%, marking the strongest increase since 2022. Benefiting from Generative AI driving a significant increase in semiconductor equipment shipments to China and Asia, this successfully offset the impact of declining automotive exports to the US amid trade tariff concerns.

By AI Insights

2026-02-18

Japan's December Exports Rise 16.8% YoY, Largest Gain in Three Years; Strong Asian Demand Offsets US Tariff Impact

Japan's total exports in December reached 9.19 trillion yen, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%. This figure not only far exceeded market expectations of 12% but also marked the fastest growth rate since late 2022. Although automobile exports to the US declined due to the drag of the tariff war, trade performance defied trends to achieve growth, driven by strong pre-Lunar New Year demand in Asia and the recovery of the semiconductor cycle.

By AI Insights

2026-02-18

Japan's December Trade Surplus Skyrockets to 1.15 Trillion Yen, Hitting a Recent High for the Month

Japan's December trade balance recorded an astounding surplus of 1.15 trillion yen, a massive leap from the previous month's 105.7 billion yen, and completely reversing the massive deficit of 2.76 trillion yen from the same period last year. Benefiting from strong exports of semiconductor equipment and automobiles, coupled with nuclear power restarts effectively lowering energy import costs, the data far exceeded market expectations, showing significant improvement in Japan's external demand and trade structure.

By AI Insights