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US Continuing Jobless Claims Rise to 1.869 Million, Beating Expectations; "Low-Layoff, Low-Hiring" Pattern Established

Core Overview: Data Rises Above Market Consensus According to the latest DataTrack data, for the week ending February 6, 2026, US continuing jobless claims recorded 1.869 million, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's 1.862 million. This figure is slightly higher than the market consensus of approximately 1.86 million surveyed by Bloomberg and Reuters, indicating that the number of people receiving unemployment benefits has not fallen back as expected but remains oscillating at relatively high levels. Although the single-week increase is not large, the data has remained above 1.86 million for several consecutive weeks, reflecting that stock pressure in the labor market still persists. Key Details: Divergence Between Initial and Continuing Claims Looking deeply into the detailed data, this report presents a clear "divergence" signal. While "initial jobless claims," which represent the pace of layoffs, unexpectedly plunged to 206,000 (hitting a recent low) during the same period, "continuing claims," representing the duration of unemployment, did not fall but instead rose. Furthermore, the four-week moving average of continuing claims is also showing a slow upward trend, hovering near 1.845 million. This indicates that while companies tend to engage in "Labor Hoarding" and are unwilling to easily lay off staff, they have also significantly reduced the release of new job openings, causing workers to spend more time finding new jobs once unemployed. Deep Attribution: Stuck in a "Low-Hiring, Low-Layoff" Equilibrium Regarding this phenomenon, analysts from Oxford Economics and other institutions point out that the US labor market has currently entered a "low-hire, low-fire" equilibrium. Under unclear economic prospects and uncertainty regarding AI transformation, companies have adopted defensive strategies: on one hand, retaining existing employees to avoid recruitment costs, and on the other hand, freezing new headcounts. This structure leads to impressive initial claims data while continuing claims data fails to improve, revealing the underlying worry of a labor market that appears resilient on the surface but is actually suffering from dried-up liquidity. Outlook and Risks: Awaiting Fed Signals Short-term (1-2 months): Continuing claims are expected to fluctuate within the 1.85-1.90 million range. Since initial claims data remains low, the risk of a sharp spike in the unemployment rate in the short term is not high; however, if continuing claims breach the 1.90 million mark, it would be a warning signal of further deterioration in the labor market, potentially forcing the market to reprice the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path. Medium-term (3-6 months): The risk lies in whether "low hiring" will eventually turn into "high layoffs." If the high-interest-rate environment persists for too long, corporate profits may come under pressure, potentially breaking the current labor hoarding strategy. At that point, the backlog of continuing claims would quickly translate into a higher unemployment rate, thereby driving up the risk of an economic recession. Web Search References https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s.-jobless-claims-decrease-much-more-expected-206000 https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-more-expected-amid-labour-market-stability https://beincrypto.com/strong-jobless-claims-surging-trade-deficit/