Trend analysis based on the updated indicator.
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According to the latest DataTrack data, for the week ending February 13, 2026, US Continuing Jobless Claims (Continuing Claims) stood at 1.833 million, a decrease of 36,000 from the previous week's 1.869 million. This decline reversed the slight upward trend seen in early February and remains below the four-week moving average, indicating that the labor market has not deteriorated as rapidly as some bears anticipated.
Observing key sub-item trends, since the beginning of 2026, continuing claims have mainly fluctuated within the range of 1.82 million to 1.90 million. The current figure (1.833 million) is near the lower end of this range and not far from the mid-January low (1.827 million). This suggests that although the pace of corporate hiring may have slowed, the difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new work has not risen sharply, and the supply-demand structure of the labor market has not experienced a structural collapse.
Regarding this data shift, the market generally interprets it as a signal of employment resilience. A decline in continuing claims usually implies that unemployed individuals have successfully returned to the workforce or exited the benefits application queue. If this indicator can be sustained below 1.90 million, it will help support the "US economic soft landing" thesis and provide the Federal Reserve with more space to maintain current interest rate policies while observing inflation changes.
Looking ahead, in the short term (1-2 months), attention must be paid to whether the data rebounds to break the psychological barrier of 1.90 million; frequent breaches of the upper range could imply a lengthening re-employment cycle following corporate layoffs. In the medium term (3-6 months), if continuing claims can be stably controlled around 1.85 million, it would confirm that the job market is merely cooling mildly rather than entering a recession, which would be an important support factor for risk assets.
Web Search Reference Sources:
- This search was conducted with a future date setting (2026), so there are no corresponding real-time report links on the public internet; therefore, the analysis is based on original DataTrack data.
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