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China's Q1 Trade Balance Records $90.97 Billion; Strong Double-Digit Growth in Combined Jan-Feb Exports Beats Expectations

By AI Insights

2026-03-10

Trend analysis based on the updated indicator. View the Indicator→

According to the latest data released by DataTrack, China's USD-denominated trade balance for Q1 2026 (as of February) recorded $90.977 billion, narrowing from the previous reading of $114.14 billion in Q4 2025. Although the single given data point shows a decline in absolute value, referencing the latest combined January-February data released by China's General Administration of Customs, the actual cumulative trade surplus reached as high as $213.62 billion. This figure strongly beat the market consensus of $179.6 billion, indicating that China still maintained a massive foreign trade surplus at the beginning of the year.

In terms of specific import and export performance, a rare pattern of "robust supply and demand" emerged. The combined export year-over-year growth rate for January and February reached 21.8%, far exceeding the market expectation of 7.1%. On the import side, performance was equally impressive, with a year-over-year increase of 19.8%, substantially surpassing the expected 6.3%; among this, crude oil import volume increased by 15.8% year-over-year, reflecting a recovery in domestic demand during the Lunar New Year holiday and a significant boost in industrial demand for commodities.

Regarding this better-than-expected export performance, market analysis generally points to flexible supply chain shifts and strong external demand. Investing.com noted that despite facing the headwinds of a new round of US trade tariffs, Chinese manufacturers have successfully shifted their export focus to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. This diversification strategy effectively offset the impact of a nearly 27% decline in exports to the US, allowing massive manufacturing capacity to continue being exported and serving as a key engine driving the overall economy to meet its targets.

Looking ahead, China's foreign trade is expected to maintain its strong momentum in the short term of 1 to 2 months. In particular, the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival and the demand for raw material restocking will provide downside support for both imports and exports. However, potential risks in the medium term of 3 to 6 months are rapidly accumulating. Heightened concerns from European countries and the US regarding China's "overcapacity" may lead to more trade restriction barriers; furthermore, Middle East geopolitical conflicts and the uncertainty of the situation in Iran could drive up global energy prices and shipping costs, posing a hidden threat to China's real economy, which is highly dependent on energy imports.

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