Japan's February Total Exports Reach 9.57 Trillion Yen, Beating Expectations and Unexpectedly Turning Trade Balance into Surplus

US-Malaysia Trade Deal Declared Void: New Global Trade Dynamics

Malaysia announced on March 15, 2026, that the “U.S.–Malaysia Reciprocal Trade Agreement” (ART) signed with the United States is invalid. This marks the first case following the U.S. Supreme Court’s February ruling that tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful. The agreement, originally signed at the ASEAN Summit on October 26, 2025, reduced tariffs on Malaysian exports to the U.S. from 25% to 19%, covering approximately 12% of Malaysia’s exports to the U.S., including key industries such as electrical and electronic products, oil and gas, palm oil, and rubber products. This development may have broad implications for the global economy, potentially prompting other countries to follow suit, widening the U.S. trade deficit (total U.S.–Malaysia trade reached USD 24.9 billion in 2024, with Malaysia ranking 14th in U.S. trade deficits), and increasing supply chain instability and stock market volatility. The root cause of this development lies in the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on February 20, which determined that the Trump administration’s unilateral imposition of reciprocal tariffs under IEEPA was unconstitutional, thereby removing the legal foundation of the ART. As a result, Malaysia’s Minister of Investment, Trade and Industry, Tengku Zafrul Aziz, formally declared on March 15 that the agreement “does not exist.” Malaysia’s exports to the U.S. are highly dependent on electronic products (export value reached USD 43.39 billion in 2024, representing a 67% increase compared to 2020). The agreement had previously provided preferential market access; its invalidation raises concerns that the U.S. may initiate Section 301 investigations, potentially impacting major export sectors such as electronics. Furthermore, the Trump administration has warned that countries invoking the court ruling to withdraw from agreements may face retaliatory tariffs, exacerbating trade tensions. Malaysia has opted to exit the agreement to avoid compromising its economic sovereignty and trade surplus (approximately MYR 98.7 billion). Looking ahead, in the short term, U.S.–Malaysia trade may shift toward a general 10% U.S. tariff framework. While this transition could reduce export costs compared to the previous 19% rate, Malaysian exporters will still face uncertainty and must remain cautious of potential targeted tariffs under Section 232 or Section 301, particularly in the electronics and rubber sectors. In the medium term, if more countries declare similar agreements invalid, the global trade landscape may undergo restructuring due to a chain reaction, leading to further supply chain adjustments. The U.S. trade deficit could worsen (Malaysia’s exports to the U.S. totaled USD 3.867 billion in January 2025, down 9% month-over-month from December 2024), potentially fueling inflation and influencing Federal Reserve monetary policy. The Malaysian government is currently assessing cost-benefit implications and seeking ASEAN cooperation to diversify risks. Overall, the market outlook remains volatile, and investors are advised to closely monitor subsequent negotiation developments.