2026-03-18
US January Voluntary Quits Drop to 3.137 Million, Labor Market Continues "Low Mobility" Deadlock
1. Core Overview:
According to the latest released JOLTS data, the number of voluntary quits in the US in January 2026 (Q1 2026) was 3.137 million, falling from the previous observation of 3.204 million in December 2025 (Q4 2025). This indicates that after experiencing a period of turbulence, labor market mobility is cooling further. Even though corporate hiring intentions have shown marginal stabilization, overall labor demand remains sluggish, and the job market is deeply entrenched in a rigid "low-hire, low-fire" pattern.
2. Key Details:
Observing the detailed performance, the overall quits rate in January continued to stagnate at around 2.0%, remaining below the pre-pandemic average level for multiple consecutive months. Meanwhile, although the overall number of job openings in January slightly recovered to approximately 6.94 million, the growth was mostly concentrated in specific sectors such as finance, insurance, and healthcare, whereas job openings and quits in industries like professional and business services, and retail contracted significantly. Workers lack confidence in successfully finding new jobs after voluntarily resigning, leading to suppressed willingness to job-hop.
3. In-depth Attribution:
Addressing this phenomenon, analysis from institutions like Indeed Hiring Lab and KPMG points out that current data highlights the normalization of a defensive mindset in the market. Facing an uncertain economic outlook and the pressure of organizational restructuring brought by AI implementation, the corporate side tends to retain existing employees while slowing down the pace of new hires. The labor side, profoundly feeling the intensified job-hunting competition and prolonged interview processes, chooses to "hold on to their jobs," prioritizing wage stability. The behaviors of both sides jointly create the current low mobility deadlock.
4. Outlook and Risks:
In the short term (1-2 months), as overall hiring momentum has not seen a comprehensive recovery, it is expected that the number of voluntary quits will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the range of 3 million to 3.2 million, and the weakening bargaining power of workers will further suppress the magnitude of wage growth. In the medium term (3-6 months), if the effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts can effectively boost the real economy, labor demand is expected to gradually thaw in the second half of the year. However, if the economic slowdown causes a wave of layoffs to spread from a few sectors to broader real industries, the risk of a rising unemployment rate will become the focus of market attention.
5. Web Search Reference Sources:
https://www.hiringlab.org/2026/03/13/january-2026-jolts-report-waiting-to-exhale/
https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2026/january-2026-jolts-national.html
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/job-quits