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US Q1 Durable Goods Orders Turn Positive, Rising 0.8% MoM; Corporate Capital Expenditure Shows Resilience

By AI Insights

2026-04-30

Trend analysis based on the updated indicator. View the Indicator→

According to the latest data, the month-over-month (MoM) growth rate of new orders for US durable goods in Q1 2026 was reported at 0.8%, turning positive from the previous period's -1.4% and outperforming the market consensus of 0.5%. This strong rebound indicates that despite facing a high-interest-rate environment and geopolitical uncertainties, the underlying demand of the US real economy remains resilient, ending the previous weak trend.

Looking at the performance of key components, the data growth was primarily driven by core manufacturing. Although orders for non-defense aircraft and parts plunged by over 20% due to factors such as delivery delays, which dragged down the overall performance of transportation equipment, non-transportation categories such as primary metals (+2.2% MoM), machinery (+1.5% MoM), and motor vehicles (+3.1% MoM) saw strong demand. In addition, shipments of core capital goods continued to expand, reflecting an actual increase in corporate equipment investment.

Investment banks and institutions have provided a positive interpretation of this data. Scotia Wealth Management's analysis pointed out that the data shows US companies are restarting and advancing long-term capital investment plans after going through a cautious wait-and-see approach in 2025. VT Markets also stated that the better-than-expected performance challenges the market narrative of a "cooling economy," proving that the US business investment environment remains active and supports the overall macroeconomic expansion momentum.

Looking ahead, in the short term (1-2 months), the recovery of manufacturing capital expenditure will continue to provide profit support for the industrial and technology sectors, but close attention must be paid to the impact of the recent Middle East situation on supply chains and the crowding-out effect on defense spending. In the medium term (3-6 months), robust economic data coupled with above-target inflation (CPI remains at about 3.1%) may force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a "Higher for longer" high-interest-rate policy and delay the potential timeline for interest rate cuts. Investors should beware of the pressure on valuations caused by fluctuations in US Treasury yields.

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