US YoY PCE Growth Climbs to 4.1%, Hitting a Three-Year High, as Resilient Consumption Fuels Rate Hike Expectations

US May Durable Goods Orders Fall 4.5% MoM, Dragged Down by Plunge in Aircraft Orders

US durable goods orders posted a month-over-month growth rate of -4.5% in May 2026, not only cooling significantly from the previous (April) 7.9% increase, but also matching the market's previous estimates for a decline. This data ends a two-month growth streak and marks the largest single-month decline since June 2025, reflecting the volatility and pressure the manufacturing sector faces in a high-interest-rate environment. Breaking down the details, the main reason for the sharp decline this month came from the highly volatile "transportation equipment" orders, which plummeted 14.0% in a single month, with the "nondefense aircraft and parts" segment plunging by 51.8%. However, excluding transportation equipment, May durable goods orders actually grew by 1.3% MoM, beating market expectations; "nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft," which is viewed as a leading indicator of corporate equipment investment, also rose by 1.6%, showing that underlying investment willingness has not entirely stalled. Regarding the polarized performance in this data, institutional analysis points out that aircraft orders are often characterized by high unit prices and extreme volatility, which is the main cause of the dive in the headline figure. Trading Economics analysis indicated that despite overall durable goods facing a double-digit decline, demand for computers and electronic products, as well as electrical equipment, has shown a slight recovery. This reflects that, supported by AI and technology infrastructure demand, companies are still maintaining robust core capital expenditures, whereas traditional manufacturing expansion remains relatively cautious due to the suppression of borrowing costs. In the short term (1-2 months), the market needs to closely monitor whether aircraft orders will continue their severe volatility, as well as the deferred impact of a high-interest-rate environment on end-consumer goods (such as home appliances and automobiles). The manufacturing sector is expected to present a dual-track pattern of "resilient new technology, pressured old economy." In the medium term (3-6 months), geopolitical conditions and supply chain restructuring will be key variables; if the US Federal Reserve can deliver clear signals of rate cuts in the second half of the year, it is expected to serve as a substantial catalyst for suppressed corporate financing and overall durable goods investment. Web search reference sources: United States Durable Goods Orders Monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments Inventories and Orders - Press Releases US Durable Goods Orders Slip as Expected — TradingView News