2026-09-12
US Q3 Core CPI YoY Growth Drops to 2.4%; Continued Inflation Cooling Boosts Market Confidence
Core Overview: According to DataTrack data, the latest US Q3 Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) YoY growth rate dropped to 2.4%, further slowing from the previous 2.5%. Although some external market reports indicated a Core CPI of 2.5%, this report relies solely on the latest data from DataTrack. This shows that after excluding volatile food and energy components, the underlying US price pressure has fallen below the market's expected consensus threshold of 2.5%, injecting a shot in the arm into the inflation cooling trend.
Key Details: In terms of key details, the converging rise in housing and rent costs is the main contributor driving the decline in the Core CPI. According to market search data, although used car and some core commodity prices experienced a slight rebound, the MoM growth rates of core service items with the highest weights, such as rent and healthcare, remained at low levels. This indicates that the stickiness of service sector inflation is gradually resolving, driving overall core inflation toward its target.
In-depth Attribution: Regarding the in-depth attribution of this data, institutions such as JPMorgan Chase and Capital Futures pointed out in their analysis that the potential demand in the US real economy is moderately cooling. The suppressive effect of the high-interest-rate environment on the demand side continues to emerge, keeping the overall direction of inflation cooling unchanged. In addition, even though the Middle East geopolitical situation once pushed up energy prices such as crude oil, the Core CPI successfully excluded such external interferences, reflecting that domestic fundamentals remain solid and prices are under control.
Outlook and Risks: In terms of outlook and risks, in the short term (1-2 months), the market will highly focus on the upcoming August inflation and employment data, which will become key catalysts for determining whether the Federal Reserve will stand pat or initiate interest rate cuts in September. In the medium term (3-6 months), vigilance is required regarding electricity and raw material demand driven by AI-related capital expenditures, as well as the potential risk of secondary supply chain disruptions if geopolitical conflicts arise. These variables may cause the last mile of inflation reduction to face setbacks.
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CPI report shows inflation cooled to 3.4% in July