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US Q3 Durable Goods Orders Flat But Beat Expectations, Core Capital Goods Expand Strongly Against the Trend

By AI Insights

2026-09-26

Trend analysis based on the updated indicator. View the Indicator→

Core Overview: According to DataTrack data, the month-over-month growth rate of US new durable goods orders in August 2026 (Q3 2026) was 0.0%, a noticeable convergence from the 1.1% gain in the previous month. Although the overall data halted consecutive months of strong growth, this "flat" performance unexpectedly beat the market's initial estimates of a 0.3% to 0.4% decline, indicating that the US economy still possesses a certain degree of resilience in the face of headwinds.

Key Components: Breaking down the details further, the stagnation in overall orders this month was primarily dragged down by a 0.6% drop in transportation equipment, among which non-defense aircraft and parts declined by 4.3%. However, "non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft" (core capital goods), seen as a key indicator of corporate equipment investment, delivered a strong 1.6% month-over-month increase, far exceeding the market expectation of 0.5%, reflecting that underlying business demand remains robust.

In-depth Attribution: Investment institutions and analysts generally believe that this data presents a "cold on the outside, warm on the inside" pattern. Financial media points out that although the transportation sector, such as commercial passenger aircraft, suppressed overall growth due to short-term fluctuations, the contrarian rise in core capital goods proves that companies have not completely scaled back capital expenditures (Capex) due to the high-interest-rate environment. This implies that the US real economy still maintains the momentum to support expansion as it enters the middle of the third quarter.

Outlook and Risks: Looking at the short term (1-2 months), constrained by the wait-and-see atmosphere ahead of the US presidential election and the lagging effects of high borrowing costs, durable goods orders are expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern, making a comprehensive breakout difficult. Looking at the medium term (3-6 months), if the Federal Reserve (Fed) gradually advances the rate-cut cycle to alleviate corporate financing pressure, coupled with the continuation of the AI wave and infrastructure construction, core durable goods are expected to usher in a broader recovery; downside risks to watch include potential disruptions to the global supply chain from geopolitical frictions.

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