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US Q3 Voluntary Quits Hold Steady at 3.066 Million, Labor Market Enters "Low Hiring, Low Firing" New Normal

By AI Insights

2026-09-30

Trend analysis based on the updated indicator. View the Indicator→

  1. Core Overview: According to the latest data provided by DataTrack, the number of voluntary quits in the US in Q3 2026 increased slightly to 3.066 million (3,066 thousand), slightly higher than the previous period's 3.056 million (3,056 thousand). The voluntary quits rate remained at a low of 1.9%, matching the lowest level since 2020. This indicates that under economic uncertainty, workers' confidence in job-hopping for higher wages remains weak, and the liquidity of the labor market has substantially cooled down.

  2. Key Details: Looking at the detailed performance, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, the number of quits in non-durable goods manufacturing and private educational services increased by 28,000 and 13,000, respectively; however, wholesale trade and local government education sectors saw significant decreases. More notably, overall job openings during the same period dropped to a five-month low of 7.079 million, but the number of layoffs and discharges also simultaneously fell to 1.641 million (a layoff rate of only 1.0%). This reflects that although corporate hiring willingness is contracting, companies are equally reluctant to easily let go of their existing workforce.

  3. In-depth Attribution: Regarding this phenomenon, The Wall Street Journal and financial institutions' analysis point out that the current US labor market has formed a dynamic equilibrium of "low hiring, low firing." As employer recruitment slows, employed workers dare not resign rashly, causing overall liquidity to cool down; however, at the same time, the corporate layoff rate remains at a historical low, serving as the greatest cornerstone supporting the labor market. This cooling state, which has not seen a sharp deterioration, has successfully alleviated market panic about the economy falling into a deep recession.

  4. Outlook and Risks: In the short term (1-2 months), under the umbrella of "low firing," the upcoming nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data are expected to remain stable, with no risk of a sudden collapse in the labor market. In the medium term (3-6 months), if job openings and voluntary quits remain at low levels for an extended period, it will suppress the momentum of workers' wage growth, thereby affecting end-consumer spending power. However, this scenario of a stable cooling down also significantly increases the probability of an economic soft landing, providing the Federal Reserve (Fed) with more flexible operational space for subsequent assessment and adjustment of monetary policy.

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