Japan Services PMI Rises to 51.7, Expanding for Fifth Consecutive Month, but Labor Shortages and Inflation Concerns Weigh on Business Confidence

US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Drops for Third Consecutive Week to 7.18%; Post-Election Treasury Yield Pullback Slightly Eases Homebuying Pressure

Core Overview: According to the latest data, as of November 5, 2026 (Q4 2026), the US 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.18%, declining again from 7.24% the previous week. This not only marks the third consecutive week of decline for this indicator but also provides a bit of breathing room for potential homebuyers facing the dual pressures of high home prices and high borrowing costs. Market consensus suggests that this drop in mortgage rates primarily reflects the recent phased pullback in US 10-year Treasury yields. Key Details: Regarding key details, as the 30-year mortgage rate dipped, the 15-year fixed mortgage rate also fell from 6.60% the previous week to 6.57%. However, despite borrowing costs easing for three consecutive weeks, the current 7.18% remains significantly higher than the 6.22% from the same period last year. Market research indicates that interest rate levels above 7% still severely constrain affordability for most homebuyers, resulting in no significant substantial rebound in recent mortgage application volumes and existing home sales activities despite the slight downward adjustment in rates. Deep Attribution: Exploring the deep attribution of this data movement, Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater stated that the continued decline in mortgage rates is gradually improving the homebuying environment for buyers against a backdrop of strong economic growth. Meanwhile, analysts also pointed out that the US midterm elections in November 2026 herald a potential "divided government" over the next two years, which will limit future unfunded fiscal expansion in the US, thereby easing pressure on Treasury issuance and prompting a cooling in long-term Treasury yields, serving as the key macroeconomic factor driving this downward trend in mortgage rates. Outlook and Risks: Looking ahead, in the short term (1-2 months), as the market still needs to digest the post-election policy directions as well as the latest inflation and employment data, the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates are expected to continue fluctuating around 7%, with the Federal Reserve's next policy guidance acting as the primary catalyst. In the medium term (3-6 months), institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley forecast that mortgage rates are likely to undergo further gradual downward adjustments in 2027; however, most existing homeowners are reluctant to sell easily due to enjoying extremely low "lock-in" rates (the lock-in effect). This structural risk will continue to suppress housing market liquidity and lead to narrowing home price gains and pressured transaction volumes in the coming months. Web Search Reference Sources: Mortgage Rates - Freddie Mac The Outlook for US Housing in 2027 amid Rising Mortgage Rates | Goldman Sachs