Datatrack - Blog

2025-12-31

Fed Meeting Minutes: December Rate Cut Decision and Economic Outlook

Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s December 9–10 meeting showed that the target range for the federal funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points to 3.5%–3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut in 2025. The minutes indicated that the labor market continues to soften, with the unemployment rate rising in September and job momentum weakening. Employment growth has slowed compared with the previous period and faces further downside risks. On inflation, core goods prices remain elevated due to the impact of tariffs. While most participants expect these pressures to gradually ease over time, some members cautioned that inflation could prove more persistent than anticipated. The decision to cut rates primarily reflected the Committee’s assessment that risks of labor market deterioration have increased. Many participants noted that maintaining a restrictive policy stance for too long could exacerbate job losses, prompting the decision to further ease monetary policy and move rates closer to a neutral level. At the same time, the continued pass-through of tariffs to final goods prices has supported inflation, leading to differing views among participants on the timing and magnitude of inflation moderation. Some officials even favored pausing rate cuts to wait for additional data. In addition, a government shutdown delayed the release of certain employment, inflation, and growth data, forcing the Committee to make decisions based on outdated information and adding to policy uncertainty. Looking ahead, markets expect the Federal Reserve to pause further rate cuts in the near term and reassess economic conditions in the first quarter before considering additional policy adjustments. Two more rate cuts remain possible around mid-year. Over the medium term, if inflation declines as expected, there may still be room for further rate reductions. However, labor market developments and tariff-related uncertainties are likely to be the key drivers of the policy outlook. Overall, the minutes underscore the Federal Reserve’s strong emphasis on employment stability, while inflation risks continue to warrant close monitoring.

By ariachiang

2025-12-30

U.S. Pending Home Sales Hit Nearly Three-Year High in November as Existing Home Market Rebounds

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported on December 29 that the U.S. Pending Home Sales Index rose 3.3% month over month to 79.2 in November, up from a revised 76.7 in October, marking the highest level since February 2023. The increase significantly exceeded market expectations of 0.8% to 1%, indicating that buyer demand is rebounding faster than anticipated. On a year-over-year basis, the index climbed 2.6%, ending several months of weakness and posting the strongest performance of the year, suggesting that the nationwide housing market is gradually emerging from its trough. Regional performance diverged but improved across the board Northeast: Up 1.8% MoM and 1.8% YoY, reflecting a gradual recovery in buyer confidence. Midwest: Up 1.3% MoM and 2.2% YoY, supported by relatively more affordable home prices. South: Up 2.4% MoM and 3.3% YoY. As the largest transaction region, activity remained steady and resilient. West: Surged 9.2% MoM and rose 2.4% YoY, the strongest gain among all regions, reflecting a rebound in transactions as inventory conditions improved. The latest uptick was primarily driven by declining mortgage rates, while wage growth has outpaced home price increases, improving housing affordability. At the same time, housing inventory rose nearly 18% from a year earlier, expanding buyer choices and easing supply constraints. These factors helped push contract signings higher for a fourth consecutive month. The broad-based rebound in November’s pending home sales index signals that existing home transactions over the next one to two months are likely to maintain a moderate upward trend, providing positive support for the housing market. In the near term, a lower interest rate environment and increased room for price negotiation toward year-end should continue to support demand, although holiday effects may slightly temper momentum. Looking to the medium term, as inventory continues to build and economic fundamentals remain stable, existing home sales in 2026 are expected to improve from the low levels seen in 2025. That said, base effects and broader macroeconomic uncertainties remain key factors to monitor.

By ariachiang

2025-12-29

China's Major Industrial Firms Profits Drop 13.1% YoY in November

China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that in November 2025, profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide fell 13.1% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 7.6 percentage points compared to October, marking a consecutive two-month drop and the largest decline in over a year. From January to November, cumulative profits reached RMB 6.63 trillion, up 0.1% year-on-year, with the growth rate down 1.8 percentage points from the first ten months, indicating a clear slowdown in the recovery momentum of industrial profitability. The sharp monthly downturn reflects that weak domestic demand has offset export support, intensifying pressure on corporate profits. Detailed Data and Contributing Factors By economic type, from January to November, profits of state-controlled enterprises fell 1.6% year-on-year, joint-stock enterprises fell 0.4%, and private enterprises fell 0.1%, while foreign- and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew 2.4%. By industry, mining profits fell 27.2% year-on-year, with coal mining down 47.3% and oil and natural gas down 13.6%; in contrast, manufacturing profits rose 5.0%, and electricity and heat supply rose 8.4%. Among major sectors, computer, communication, and electronic equipment manufacturing rose 15.0% year-on-year, electricity and heat production up 11.8%, non-ferrous metal smelting up 11.1%, automobile manufacturing up 7.5%, and agricultural and sideline food processing up 4.8%; while non-metallic minerals, chemical raw materials, and textiles fell 4.6%, 6.9%, and 8.2% respectively. Overall, insufficient domestic demand has put downward pressure on prices, with industrial enterprises’ operating profit margin declining to 5.29%, down 0.08 percentage points from last year, while costs rose 1.8% year-on-year, squeezing profitability. Inventory and financing pressures have also increased, with finished goods inventory turnover days extending to 20.5 and accounts receivable collection period lengthening to 70.4 days. Under the influence of international uncertainties and industrial restructuring, traditional industries continue to face pressure, whereas emerging and high-tech sectors are relatively supported by export momentum and policy incentives. The sharp drop in industrial profits in November highlights the fragility of the overall recovery, with cumulative growth largely supported by manufacturing and new growth drivers, while weak domestic demand and rising inventory remain key concerns. In the short term (1–2 months), if price declines ease and domestic demand stimulus policies are strengthened, the year-on-year profit decline could narrow to single digits; otherwise, negative growth may persist. In the medium term (six months), with continued anti-involution policies and sustained high-tech export momentum, cumulative profits are expected to return to growth above 3%, with equipment manufacturing serving as the main driver. Read More at Datatrack

By ariachiang

2025-12-26

Tokyo CPI Cools Down, Core Index at 2.3% YoY

As a key inflation indicator for Japan, Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December rose 2.0% year-on-year, down sharply from 2.7% in November, indicating that inflationary pressures are continuing to ease, though still above the central bank’s 2% target. Core CPI (excluding fresh food) increased 2.3% year-on-year, down from 2.8% last month, marking its lowest level since February and falling short of the market expectation of 2.5%. Core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) rose 2.6% year-on-year, slightly down from 2.8% in the previous month. All three major indicators have remained below 3% since June, signaling that inflation momentum is no longer accelerating. A closer look at Tokyo’s CPI components shows that falling energy prices are the main driver behind the cooling inflation, with key points as follows: Energy prices fell 3.4% year-on-year (previously up 1.2%), ending a three-month streak of increases and exerting a notable downward pull on overall inflation. Processed food prices rose 6.2% year-on-year (previously 6.5%), reflecting ongoing impacts from rice supply shortages; rice prices surged 34.7%, though import costs have stabilized. Fresh food prices declined (previously up 2.1% year-on-year), further lowering overall CPI growth. Kindergarten fees fell 60.4% year-on-year (unchanged from the previous month), with government subsidies continuing to curb costs effectively. Overall, the combination of base effects in energy, slowing fresh food price increases, government subsidies, and a stable yen has contributed to the moderation of Tokyo’s CPI. In general, all three major Tokyo CPI indicators show a cooling trend, remaining above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target but well below previous peaks, indicating that inflation momentum is gradually stabilizing. In the short term (1–2 months), core CPI is expected to fluctuate within a 2.2%–2.5% range, with limited upside due to energy and food price volatility. In the medium term (within six months), if the yen strengthens and global commodity prices stabilize, inflation may move closer to the 2% target, creating conditions for monetary policy normalization. Conversely, a persistently weak yen and heightened geopolitical risks could push up import costs and inflationary pressures, while rice price fluctuations may amplify increases in food prices. Read More at Datatrack

By ariachiang

2025-12-24

U.S. Real GDP Growth Hits 4.3% in Q3, Reaching a Two-Year High

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on December 23, 2025, that real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter (July to September), significantly exceeding the market expectation of 3.3% and above the revised 3.8% growth of the second quarter, marking the highest level since Q4 2023. Meanwhile, the annual GDP growth rate rose to 2.3%, up from 2.1% in the previous quarter. Overall, the data indicate that despite previous delays in statistical releases due to a federal government shutdown, the U.S. economy remains highly resilient, with private consumption serving as the main growth driver, contributing more than half of the increase. Detailed Data and Growth Drivers: Private consumption contributed 2.39 percentage points to GDP, up from 1.68 points previously, with services consumption showing the strongest performance. Exports rebounded significantly, providing a positive contribution that partially offset the drag from higher imports. Government spending and investment both grew, further supporting overall economic performance. The core PCE price index increased at an annualized rate of 2.9% for the quarter, slightly above the previous 2.6% and in line with market expectations, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising moderately but remain under control. This quarter’s economic growth was mainly supported by a stable labor market, improved consumer confidence, and stronger export demand. At the same time, short-term factors such as inventory adjustments and an expanded trade surplus further boosted quarterly growth. Overall, underlying growth momentum is estimated at around 2.5%, reflecting no signs of an overheating economy. The third-quarter GDP performance further reinforces market expectations of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy. With strong growth and manageable inflation, the Federal Reserve has room for policy adjustments in 2026. In the short term, economic momentum is expected to remain resilient, supported by holiday consumption and employment data, although attention must be paid to potential lingering effects of the government shutdown and the risk of rising inflation. In the medium term, if trade policies remain stable, the annual GDP growth rate could hold above 2.3%, though geopolitical risks and interest rate policy developments remain key concerns for investors.

By ariachiang

2025-12-23

Gold and Silver Fix Prices Continue to Reach Annual Highs

On the afternoon of December 22, the London gold fixing was $4,421.65 per ounce, up $15.55 from the morning fixing of $4,406.10, marking a new high for 2025. Silver’s noon fixing was $69.22 per ounce, up $3.435 from $65.785 on December 19, representing a year-on-year increase of over 128%, also reaching an annual high. Compared with $4,254.10 at the beginning of December, gold’s monthly gain was about 4%, showing strong upward momentum. The surge in gold prices was mainly driven by the Federal Reserve’s expected two-rate cut in 2026, prompting safe-haven inflows into the precious metals market. Geopolitical tensions, including the U.S. oil blockade on Venezuela and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, also boosted gold demand. In addition, ETFs have seen inflows for four consecutive weeks, global central banks continue purchasing gold, and a weaker U.S. dollar coupled with persistent inflation pressures have supported rising gold and silver prices. Silver prices have surged by more than USD 3.4 recently, driven mainly by a recovery in industrial demand. Silver consumption in solar panels and the electronics industry has increased by over 15% year on year, reaching a ten-year high by the end of 2025. At the same time, ongoing supply chain bottlenecks have persisted, with silver mine output declining by 2% month on month, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. In addition, investors pursuing a metals rotation strategy have shifted funds from gold to silver, boosting silver’s dual appeal as both a safe-haven and a growth asset. In the short term, gold and silver prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels, with potential further gains toward year-end due to holiday demand and year-end settlements. Looking ahead to the medium term, analysts predict that gold may still have room to rise in 2026, potentially challenging $4,500 per ounce, though Fed policy shifts and economic data remain key risks. Investors should monitor the upcoming London fixings and global stock market trends to gauge future movements. Read More at Datatrack

By ariachiang

2025-12-22

BOJ Delivers Expected 25bps Hike: Inflation-Solid Path Forward and Outlook

The Bank of Japan held its monetary policy meeting on December 19, 2025, and, in line with market expectations, raised the policy rate by 25 basis points from 0.5% to 0.75%, marking the highest level in nearly 30 years since 1995. This also represents the first rate hike in 11 months following the previous increase in January. The decision was unanimously approved by the Policy Board, reflecting a positive outlook for economic activity and prices. Core CPI inflation has remained near the 2% target and has stayed above this level for more than three consecutive years. Following the announcement, the Nikkei 225 index edged up 0.034% to close at 3,371.65, indicating that the market had largely priced in the rate hike. The primary drivers behind the rate increase were persistent inflationary pressures and solid wage growth. A weaker yen has pushed up import costs, with prices rising by more than 5% cumulatively since early 2025, adding to the cost-of-living burden. At the same time, labor shortages have intensified, and the largest labor union is expected to demand wage increases of at least 5% in the 2025 spring wage negotiations, maintaining the elevated level seen in 2024. This is expected to support domestic consumption and economic momentum. In addition, risks related to U.S. tariffs have eased. At the post-meeting press conference, Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that economic momentum remains solid and stated that the Bank will respond flexibly based on incoming data at each meeting, without ruling out further adjustments to monetary accommodation. Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain a pace of one rate hike every six months in the near term, with markets expecting the policy rate to rise further to 1.0% in the first half of 2026. Over the medium term, the policy path will depend on economic conditions and wage trends, and a slowdown could occur if household and corporate confidence weakens. Overall, the benchmark rate is expected to gradually move toward the 1.5% level, which would help stabilize the yen and contain inflation persistence. However, global trade uncertainties remain a key risk. This rate hike reinforces the Bank of Japan’s signal of exiting its ultra-loose monetary policy stance and supports financial market normalization, though investors should continue to monitor Governor Ueda’s remarks and guidance from the January meeting. Read More at Datatrack

By ariachiang

2025-12-19

US November CPI Rises 2.7% YoY Below Expectations Inflation Eases

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the year-on-year growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November stood at 2.7%, a clear slowdown from the previous reading of 3.0% and below the market expectation of 3.1%. Core CPI also eased to 2.6% year-on-year, coming in below both the prior figure and market expectations, indicating a continued moderation in underlying inflation pressures and a notable cooling in overall inflation momentum. Breakdown and key drivers: Core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year (previous and consensus: 3.0%), with a monthly increase of around 0.2% to 0.3%. Higher housing and healthcare costs partly offset the disinflationary impact from declining energy prices. Food CPI increased by around 2.5% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous period, mainly due to stable grain prices. Energy CPI declined 1.0% year-on-year, with gasoline prices falling about 3% month-on-month, serving as the primary driver of the overall inflation pullback. Housing-related components rose 4.0% year-on-year and remain a key factor constraining further declines in core inflation. Utility and insurance costs also moved higher, while manufacturing input cost pressures eased amid supply chain improvements and diminishing tariff impacts. The latest data were largely driven by falling energy prices and ongoing supply chain normalization. However, the partial government shutdown delayed the release of October data, affecting the precision of short-term month-on-month comparisons. According to the Federal Reserve’s November Beige Book, retail and manufacturing sectors continue to face cost pressures from tariffs, though overall price increases remain moderate. November CPI data came in better than expected, further confirming the disinflationary trend and easing concerns over the prolonged maintenance of high interest rates, which is supportive of risk assets. In the near term, the market expects December CPI to rebound slightly by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points, while core inflation is likely to remain within the 2.5% to 2.8% range. Sentiment toward U.S. equities and bonds remains constructive, with the yield curve continuing to flatten. Over the medium term, if the labor market remains stable, the Federal Reserve may begin cutting rates by 50 to 75 basis points in the first half of 2026. A weaker U.S. dollar would benefit emerging markets, though uncertainties surrounding tariff policy warrant continued attention. Read More at Datatrack

By ariachiang

2025-12-18

FED Chair Succession Storm: Markets Betting on Powell's Successor?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term is set to expire in May 2026, and market speculation over his successor has intensified, becoming a key catalyst for heightened financial market volatility. As of December 17, 2025, notable shifts have emerged along the U.S. Treasury yield curve. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 8 basis points from the previous week to 4.22%, marking its lowest level in nearly three months, while the 2-year yield rose 5 basis points to 3.95%, reflecting rising short-term rate expectations and a further deepening of yield curve inversion. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declined by 1.2% since December 16, recording its largest weekly drop of the year, as investors grew increasingly uneasy about the future direction of monetary policy. In equity markets, the S&P 500 briefly fell as much as 0.8% intraday on December 17, with technology stocks leading losses of more than 1.5%, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to uncertainty surrounding the policy stance of Powell’s potential successor. Overall market volatility has increased by approximately 25% compared with the same period last month. The intensifying succession debate largely stems from public statements following the inauguration of the Trump administration. On December 16, President-elect Donald Trump hinted via social media that he may nominate a more “hawkish” candidate to replace Powell, triggering market anxiety. Potential candidates include former Fed Governor Judy Shelton and Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent, both of whom advocate reducing the Federal Reserve’s independence and accelerating monetary tightening. These expectations have exacerbated selling pressure in the bond market, widening the yield curve inversion to 45 basis points, the largest since November 2025. Economic data have further deepened market divisions. The latest figures show U.S. CPI inflation rising 2.7% year over year in November, up 0.3 percentage points from the prior month. While still above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, the reading came in below some market expectations, lending support to hawkish arguments. At the same time, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, while retail sales released on December 16 declined 0.1% month over month, signaling a slowdown in consumer demand. The interaction between political intervention and mixed economic indicators has amplified uncertainty surrounding the future interest rate path. Overall, the Fed chair succession issue has temporarily overtaken traditional macroeconomic data as the dominant driver of market sentiment. In the near term, U.S. equities and the dollar are likely to remain volatile, with the VIX expected to stay above 20. Over the medium term, should Trump successfully advance a hawkish nominee, the federal funds rate may remain in the 5.25% to 5.50% range through the first half of 2026, with an estimated 40% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Conversely, if congressional resistance intensifies, the probability of Powell’s reappointment could rise to 35%, potentially providing support for a rebound in the bond market. Investors are advised to closely monitor the December 18 FOMC meeting minutes and developments in key personnel appointments, while diversifying into gold and short-term U.S. Treasuries as hedges against volatility. Looking ahead to 2026, the outcome of the Fed leadership transition is expected to have a profound impact on global capital flows, with Taiwan’s equity market and the New Taiwan dollar unlikely to remain unaffected.

By ariachiang