Key Indicator
United States: PPI: NSA
United States: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI): Preliminary: Anomaly
United States: ISM Manufacturing PMI - Final (SA)
United States: CPI (NSA)
COMEX Inventory: Silver
S&P 500 Index
Global: GDP Gowth Rate - United States
Global Foundries' Revenue
DRAM Makers' Fab Capacity Breakdown by Brand
NAND Flash Makers' Capex: Forecast
IC Design Revenue
Server Shipment
Top 10 MLCC Suppliers' Capex: Forecast
LCD Panel Makers' Revenue
AMOLED Capacity Input Area by Vendor: Forecast
Smartphone Panel Shipments by Supplier
Notebook Panel Shipments (LCD only): Forecast
Smartphone Panel Shipments by Sizes: Total
Notebook Panel Shipments (LCD only)
PV Supply Chain Module Capacity: Forecast
PV Supply Chain Cell Capacity: Forecast
PV Supply Chain Polysilicon Capacity
PV Supply Chain Wafer Capacity
Global PV Demand: Forecast
Smartphone Production Volume
Notebook Shipments by Brand
Smartphone Production Volume: Forecast
Wearable Shipment
TV Shipments (incl. LCD/OLED/QLED): Total
China Smartphone Production Volume
ITU Mobile Phone Users -- Global
ITU Internet Penetration Rate -- Global
ITU Mobile Phone Users -- Developed Countries
Electric Vehicles (EVs) Sales: Forecast
Global Automotive Sales
AR/VR Device Shipment: Forecast
China: Power Battery: Battery Output Power: Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery: Month to Date
CADA China Vehicle Inventory Alert Index (VIA)
Micro/Mini LED (Self-Emitting Display) Market Revenue
Micro/Mini LED (Self-Emitting Display) Market Revenue: Forecast
LED Chip Revenue (Chip Foundry+ In House Used): Forecast
GaN LED Accumulated MOCVD Installation Volume
Video Wall-Display LED Market Revenue: Forecast
Consumer & Others LED Market Revenue
2025-12-12
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its meeting on December 9–10, 2025, and decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5%–3.75%. This marks the third consecutive rate cut and a cumulative reduction of 100 basis points since the beginning of the year. Economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace, but job growth has slowed this year, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.5% in September, the highest level in 2025. Inflation has rebounded since early this year and remains elevated, with core PCE rising 2.8% year over year in September, still above the 2% target. Downside risks in the labor market have recently intensified, leading the Committee to judge that the balance of risks between its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability has deteriorated. This prompted a rate cut to support employment. Persistent inflation pressures are partly linked to bank reserve balances falling to ample levels, prompting the Federal Reserve to restart purchases of short-term Treasury bills at an initial pace of 40 billion dollars per month to maintain adequate reserve supply. Policy decisions remain subject to significant uncertainty, including labor market trends, inflation expectations, and global financial conditions. Three members dissented in this meeting: one favored a larger 50-basis-point cut, while two opposed any rate cut. Along with the release of the final policy decision of the year, the Fed also published the final edition of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which includes officials’ outlook for the economy and interest rates in the coming years. The latest projections show core PCE falling to 3.0% in 2025; GDP growth in 2026 being revised up to 2.3%; the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%; but the interest rate path showing only one additional rate cut each in 2026 and 2027. The post-meeting statement adopted a slightly more restrictive tone, indicating a higher bar for future policy adjustments and limited room for further easing. In the near term, markets will focus on employment and CPI data to be released on December 16 and 18. The medium-term outlook leans hawkish, with the likelihood of another rate cut before June diminishing, and investors should remain alert to rising uncertainty risks.
2025-12-11
The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 rose 0.7% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from October’s 0.2%, marking the highest level in nearly 21 months since March 2024 and meeting market expectations. The month-on-month rate unexpectedly fell 0.1%, ending the previous month’s upward trend, mainly due to seasonal declines in service prices. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 1.2% year-on-year, remaining above 1% for the third consecutive month, indicating stable underlying consumer demand. Detailed data: Food prices: up 0.2% year-on-year, ending the prior month’s 2.9% year-on-year decline. Fresh vegetable prices rose 14.5% (contributing about 0.31 percentage points), aquatic products increased 1.5%, fresh fruits rose 0.7%, while pork fell 15% but with a narrowing decline. Non-food prices: up 0.8% year-on-year, with consumer goods up 0.6% and services up 0.7%; CPI in urban areas rose 0.7% year-on-year, rural areas 0.4%. Main drivers of CPI rebound: weather-driven vegetable price increases, appliance and automobile sales boosted by trade-in policies, and the effect of measures to expand domestic demand. However, weak domestic demand, a sluggish housing market, and overcapacity continue to suppress overall price momentum. The November CPI increase indicates a slight easing of deflationary pressure, with food price recovery and stable core indicators providing support. However, the Producer Price Index (PPI) has fallen for 38 consecutive months, down 2.2%, highlighting upstream deflation risks. In the short term (1–2 months), CPI is expected to maintain moderate positive growth, but may retreat to 0.2%–0.5% due to post-holiday demand softening and base effects. In the medium term (within six months), if policies continue to stimulate consumption, CPI could stabilize at 0.5%–1.0%, though risks from the real estate sector and global demand fluctuations remain. Read More at Datatrack
2025-12-10
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October 2025 JOLTS report on December 9. Total job openings rose slightly to 7.67 million, a five month high, inching up from September and increasing by about 470,000 from roughly 7.2 million in August. The data suggests the labor market is gradually stabilizing after the government shutdown. The job openings rate remained at 4.6 percent, below the pre pandemic average but about 5 percent lower than the same period last year. Hiring and total separations both held steady at around 5.1 million, while the quits rate stayed at 3.2 percent, reflecting employers’ cautious hiring stance and still low worker mobility. Key details for October JOLTS: Total job openings reached 7.67 million with modest growth; gains were concentrated in trade, transportation, and retail due to mild holiday season demand, while federal government openings fell by 25,000 month over month. Quits totaled about 2.9 million, with a quits rate of 1.8 percent, flat month over month but down 276,000 year over year; accommodation and food services decreased by 136,000, and healthcare and social assistance decreased by 114,000. Layoffs and discharges were 1.9 million, with a rate of 1.2 percent, unchanged from the prior month; accommodation and food services increased by 130,000 due to the government shutdown and the delayed Thanksgiving period. Small businesses saw an increase in openings, but the ADP report showed 24,000 layoffs in October, with hiring still lagging. Construction demand weakened, with hiring, quits, and layoffs all falling. Although annual wage growth increased, the sector was dragged by a shortage of immigrant labor. The overall hiring rate was 3.2 percent, lower than the pre pandemic average of 3.9 percent, reflecting employers’ cautious economic outlook. The October JOLTS data indicates that the labor market is stabilizing, with no significant deterioration in quits or layoff rates. It signals “still tight but cooling conditions,” reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to begin rate cuts at the FOMC meeting tonight. In the near term, this slightly resilient employment structure, combined with wage and services inflation still above target, reinforces the Fed’s stance of holding rates steady and emphasizing data dependence. Market expectations for a rate cut before year end may be revised down further, with the first cut more likely to be postponed to next year and heavily dependent on the performance of upcoming nonfarm payrolls, inflation data, and new JOLTS reports over the next one to two months. Read More at Datatrack
2025-12-09
The outcome of the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting will be announced in the early hours of the 11th Taipei time. The market broadly expects another 25 basis-point rate cut, bringing the policy rate to the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range. Signals of an economic slowdown have become increasingly clear, yet inflation has not returned to target, prompting policymakers to proceed cautiously. This meeting will update the Summary of Economic Projections to reinforce policy continuity for the coming year, while Chair Powell’s remarks will give investors insight into the data-dependent approach guiding future actions. The recent cooling in the labor market, including slower job growth and a slight rise in the unemployment rate, provides room for continued rate cuts. However, the slow pace of disinflation keeps some officials alert to upside risks, resulting in internal differences of opinion. The conclusion of quantitative tightening earlier this month has tightened liquidity in the financial system, and the Federal Reserve is evaluating whether to introduce new asset-purchase tools to stabilize short-term interest rates. Externally, global economic uncertainties and the policy direction of the new U.S. administration add complexity to the outlook, pushing the policy path toward a more gradual adjustment. Overall, the probability of a December rate cut is high, but the Federal Reserve is expected to use its statement and dot plot to signal limited room for easing next year, likely only one or two more cuts. In the short term, improved risk sentiment may boost U.S. equities and bonds, though capital flows will still depend on the design of any balance-sheet expansion and the broader liquidity environment. In the medium term, if inflation or employment data become volatile again, the risk of a policy reversal will increase, making a diversified allocation strategy advisable. The results of this meeting will set the tone for the monetary environment heading into 2026, maintaining a cautiously optimistic overall stance.
2025-12-08
Japan’s Cabinet Office released the revised GDP figures for the third quarter of 2025 (July to September) on December 8. Real GDP contracted 0.6 percent from the previous quarter, or an annualized 2.3 percent decline, worse than the market’s median forecast of a 2.0 percent drop and the largest decrease since the third quarter of 2023. Compared with the preliminary estimates of a 0.4 percent quarterly decline and a 1.8 percent annualized drop, the revised figures indicate a sharper downturn, mainly due to weaker-than-expected corporate spending, falling exports, and reduced public investment. The impact of U.S. President Trump’s tariff policy on automobile exports is seen as another significant drag on the economy. Breakdown data point to broad-based weakness across Japan’s economy: Private consumption grew only 0.1 percent, slowing from 0.4 percent in the previous quarter, affected by higher rice prices and electricity costs. Exports declined, pressured by U.S. tariffs and travel advisories affecting Chinese tourists. Public investment decreased, corporate capital expenditure fell short of expectations, and housing investment weakened due to new regulatory measures. Nominal GDP reached 63.582 trillion yen, slightly above the previous quarter’s 63.502 trillion yen, though real growth remained stagnant. Overall, the revised third-quarter GDP results highlight the challenges Japan faces from external trade pressures and subdued domestic demand, signaling weakening economic momentum. In the short term (one to two months), the November economic sentiment index fell to 48.7, suggesting that exports and consumption may remain soft amid tariff effects and price pressures. Over the medium term (within six months), real GDP growth is expected to be around 0.7 percent, with private consumption and capital investment gradually recovering. However, the outlook will depend on progress in U.S.–Japan trade negotiations and the yen’s trajectory; any easing of tariff pressures would improve stabilization prospects. Read More at Datatrack
2025-12-05
The latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that for the week ending November 29, 2025, initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 27,000 to 191,000, a significant drop from the previous week’s 218,000. This represents a 12.4 percent decline from a year earlier and marks the lowest level since September 2022. The figure came in well below the market expectation of 220,000 and has now declined for four consecutive weeks, indicating that layoffs in the labor market continue to ease, countering earlier concerns from some independent surveys about weak employment conditions in November. The four-week moving average also fell from 224,250 to 214,750, a monthly decline of roughly 4.3 percent, further suggesting resilience in the job market. Continuing claims for unemployment benefits edged down by 4,000 to 1.939 million, a slight decrease from the previous period but still relatively elevated. Initial claims by federal employees dropped to 1,125 from 1,724, down about 35 percent year over year, reflecting the fading impact of the government shutdown. Short-term factors contributing to the decline in initial claims include: Seasonal fluctuations during the Thanksgiving period reducing temporary layoffs. Although corporate hiring is slowing, the pace of layoffs is also decreasing, keeping the labor market stable. Large declines previously seen in states such as California and Georgia offset volatility in other areas, keeping continuing claims steady. The fading impact of hurricanes and other short-term events, with data returning to normal levels. Because seasonal adjustments around the Thanksgiving holiday are difficult to calibrate accurately, last week’s initial claims data may contain distortions. Overall, the drop in initial jobless claims to a more-than-three-year low indicates reduced layoff pressure and helps alleviate recent concerns about weakening employment momentum. Over the next one to two months, the data is expected to fluctuate at a low level between 190,000 and 220,000, influenced by holiday effects and the typical year-end hiring slowdown. However, barring major shocks, the unemployment rate is expected to hold around 4.1 percent. In the medium term, as the Federal Reserve shifts policy and the economy improves, initial claims may gradually rise to around 270,000, though the overall job market is still expected to remain healthy and unlikely to trigger recession risks. Read More at Datatrack
2025-12-04
US November ISM Services PMI came in at 52.6, a slight increase from October’s 52.4 and higher than 52.1 in the same period last year. This marks the fifth consecutive month in expansion territory. The data indicates the services sector is still maintaining growth momentum, though the overall pace remains moderate without signs of clear acceleration. Sub-indexes showed mixed performance: The Supplier Deliveries Index rose to 54.1 (previous: 50.8), reflecting slower delivery times, partly due to the government shutdown and tariff adjustments. The Prices Index fell from 70 to 65.4, indicating a modest easing in inflationary pressures. The Employment Index increased to 48.9 (previous: 48.2). Although still in contraction, it reached the highest level since May 2025, suggesting improving labor conditions. The New Orders Index came in at 52.9, down 3.3 points from October’s 56.2, signaling slower growth after consecutive months of expansion. External factors such as trade tariffs, policy uncertainty, and transportation disruptions continue to add volatility to supply chains. Overall, the November ISM Services PMI remained in expansion, indicating short-term resilience in the US services sector. Growth is expected to stay moderate over the next one to two months, supported by holiday demand, though changes in government policy and tariffs remain key uncertainties. In the mid-term, the services industry may benefit from economic recovery and improving consumption, but global supply chain and geopolitical risks could continue to pose challenges. Read More at Datatrack
2025-12-03
The United States recently confirmed it will lower tariffs on South Korean imports from 25 percent to 15 percent, retroactive to November 1, 2025. This move significantly reduces the burden on major Korean export items such as automobiles and aircraft components. Overall industry costs are expected to decline by about 10 percent compared with the previous month, while easing the market uncertainty caused by the earlier high tariffs. Automakers like Hyundai and Kia are expected to benefit the most, potentially saving billions of dollars in tariff payments starting in November and setting a new record low tariff level since the bilateral trade agreement took effect. On South Korea’s side, the National Assembly passed a bill on November 26 to fulfill its 350 billion dollar strategic investment commitment to the United States, meeting the requirements outlined in the U.S. memorandum and prompting the U.S. Department of Commerce to finalize the tariff reduction. This investment framework originated from the summit between South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and U.S. President Trump on October 29, where the two sides reached an “investment-for-tariffs” agreement, including 200 billion dollars in cash investments and a 150 billion dollar shipbuilding cooperation project. The Trump administration is promoting this approach to strengthen U.S. industrial interests, while South Korea is moving quickly through legislation to prevent its electronics and automotive sectors from continuing to face a 25 percent tariff burden. In the short term, the tariff reduction is expected to support growth in Korean exports to the U.S., with automobile sales in the first quarter of 2026 projected to rise more than 5 percent year over year, helping revive the supply chain. In the midterm, the U.S.–Korea trade framework may expand to more product categories. South Korea will need to continue meeting its investment commitments to maintain the reciprocal 15 percent tariff rate, the same level granted to Japan and the European Union, and reduce risks in future negotiations. While the overall market outlook is generally positive, global trade conditions remain uncertain under Trump’s policies. South Korean companies will need to strengthen domestic production strategies to better withstand volatility.
2025-12-01
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached 49.2 percent in November 2025, rising 0.2 percentage points from October but remaining below the 50 expansion threshold for the eighth consecutive month, marking the longest contraction streak since the early COVID outbreak in 2020. Meanwhile, the Ratingdog China Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.5 percent, up 1.2 percentage points from October and the highest level since July, surpassing market expectations of 50.6 percent. This indicates a faster recovery in activity among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Overall, the official data show persistent pressure on large enterprises, while the Ratingdog index suggests more visible improvement among SMEs. Economic momentum remains weak, though policy effects have begun to surface. Production-related PMI sub-indices: The production index stood at 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, ending its consecutive period of contraction; the new orders index was 49.2%, rising 0.4 percentage points month on month but still in contraction territory. The PMI for large enterprises was 49.3%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; medium-sized enterprises recorded 48.9%, up 0.2 percentage points; small enterprises came in at 49.1%, rising 2.0 percentage points. The high-tech manufacturing PMI remained at 50.1%, staying above the expansion-contraction threshold for ten consecutive months; the production and business activity expectations index rose to 53.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Overall, the movements in the sub-indices were mainly driven by the continued effects of existing policies and the introduction of additional supportive measures. Real estate sector adjustments weighed on large enterprises, US tariff uncertainties suppressed export orders, and weak domestic demand combined with the seasonal consumption lull added pressure. In contrast, Ratingdog data show that SMEs benefited from fiscal support, with improving new export orders helping to fuel expansion. China’s manufacturing sector in November displayed a diverging pattern: official data continued to show contraction, while the Ratingdog index pointed to a recovery led by SMEs. In the short term (1 to 2 months), the PMI is expected to fluctuate between 49.5 and 51.0, with year-end stimulus measures and the export off-season keeping large enterprises under strain, though SME expansion may continue. In the medium term (within six months), if additional policy measures are implemented more rapidly and US-China trade tensions ease, the manufacturing sector could return to expansion. However, the sluggish property market and slowing global demand remain key risks, and attention will be needed to see whether December data signal a turning point. Read More at Datatrack