In the first half of 2025, China’s goods trade surplus reached 586 billion US dollars, setting a historic high with a significant 34% increase compared to the same period last year. Last year's surplus nearly approached the one-trillion-dollar mark, and experts remain optimistic that the full-year surplus could reach 1.2 trillion dollars, continuing the strong momentum after breaking the global record last year. This data indicates that despite ongoing US tariff pressures, China has maintained robust export momentum and sustained a substantial trade surplus.
- China-US total trade volume was 289.3 billion USD, down 10% year-on-year. While exports to the US remain an important pillar, June’s trade surplus with the US fell to about 9.5 billion USD, the lowest since February 2004.
- Vietnam and Taiwan surpassed China in US trade surplus in June, reaching 14.7 billion USD and 12.6 billion USD respectively, indicating a shift in manufacturing export chains.
- US tariffs have reduced Chinese exports to the US, with certain products rerouted through regional transshipment to avoid high tariffs, as other Asian countries increased exports to the US to fill the gap.
- According to July 2025 data, China’s exports grew 7.2% year-on-year, but direct exports to the US declined 21.6%, reflecting that export growth is driven mainly by markets other than the US, demonstrating trade diversification strategies taking effect.
- The total global trade volume in the first half of 2025 surpassed 20 trillion RMB, signaling active overall foreign trade.
- Export product structure continues to adjust, with a rising share of high value-added products and technology-related exports such as semiconductor components, while traditional low-value processing exports slightly declined.
In summary, China’s goods trade surplus in the first half of 2025 reached new heights, showing resilience even under high US tariff pressures. Trade diversification and regional supply chain adjustments are key strategies, supported by increased exports of advanced manufacturing and technology products that improve trade quality. Moving forward, China is expected to further optimize trade structure and diversify markets to reduce US reliance. Market participants should closely monitor the developments in US-China tariff policies, global economic shifts, and the implications of export product structure adjustments on China’s long-term competitiveness.
