2025-12-30
U.S. Pending Home Sales Hit Nearly Three-Year High in November as Existing Home Market Rebounds
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported on December 29 that the U.S. Pending Home Sales Index rose 3.3% month over month to 79.2 in November, up from a revised 76.7 in October, marking the highest level since February 2023. The increase significantly exceeded market expectations of 0.8% to 1%, indicating that buyer demand is rebounding faster than anticipated. On a year-over-year basis, the index climbed 2.6%, ending several months of weakness and posting the strongest performance of the year, suggesting that the nationwide housing market is gradually emerging from its trough.
Regional performance diverged but improved across the board
Northeast: Up 1.8% MoM and 1.8% YoY, reflecting a gradual recovery in buyer confidence.
Midwest: Up 1.3% MoM and 2.2% YoY, supported by relatively more affordable home prices.
South: Up 2.4% MoM and 3.3% YoY. As the largest transaction region, activity remained steady and resilient.
West: Surged 9.2% MoM and rose 2.4% YoY, the strongest gain among all regions, reflecting a rebound in transactions as inventory conditions improved.
The latest uptick was primarily driven by declining mortgage rates, while wage growth has outpaced home price increases, improving housing affordability. At the same time, housing inventory rose nearly 18% from a year earlier, expanding buyer choices and easing supply constraints. These factors helped push contract signings higher for a fourth consecutive month.
The broad-based rebound in November’s pending home sales index signals that existing home transactions over the next one to two months are likely to maintain a moderate upward trend, providing positive support for the housing market. In the near term, a lower interest rate environment and increased room for price negotiation toward year-end should continue to support demand, although holiday effects may slightly temper momentum.
Looking to the medium term, as inventory continues to build and economic fundamentals remain stable, existing home sales in 2026 are expected to improve from the low levels seen in 2025. That said, base effects and broader macroeconomic uncertainties remain key factors to monitor.