US Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: December Data Signals Labor Market Trends

2026-01-05

The U.S. December nonfarm payroll report is scheduled for release on January 9. The market expects an increase of around 55,000 jobs, slightly below November’s 64,000, but still indicating positive growth. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.6% or edge up slightly to 4.7%, continuing the upward trend from November’s 4.6%, which marked the highest level since September 2021, signaling signs of a weakening labor market.

Labor data continue to be affected by the Trump administration’s high-tariff policies, as companies remain cautious in hiring amid trade uncertainties and economic slowdown pressures. According to the U.S. Department of Labor’s leading indicators, the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose to 218,750, a weekly increase of 1,750, while continuing claims fell to 1.866 million, below market expectations. Although the data indicate that some job seekers are still able to re-enter the workforce, hiring activity remains subdued, impacting confidence in U.S. employment prospects.

Additionally, the JOLTS job openings report, due on January 7, is expected to further reflect the cooling trend in labor demand. Inflation has not surged significantly due to tariffs, but related risks have prompted the Federal Reserve to start evaluating the path for future rate cuts.

Looking ahead, if December’s nonfarm payrolls fall short of expectations, it could increase the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed at the end of January, which would support U.S. stocks and gold. In the medium term, the labor market may remain under pressure, depending on tariff implementation and changes in global demand. Investors are advised to focus on the three core nonfarm indicators—employment change, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings—to assess overall trends rather than month-to-month fluctuations.