US ISM Manufacturing PMI Rises to 49.1 in September but Remains in Contraction

2025-10-03

The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered 49.1 in September, up 0.4 points from August’s 48.7 and marking the highest reading in seven months. However, it remained below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, indicating the sector is still shrinking. Compared with the same period last year, the PMI has improved, suggesting that the downturn is easing, though not yet shifting into growth.

Details of the sub-indexes showed mixed performance:

  • New Orders Index fell 2.5 pts MoM to 48.9, a sharp retreat from August’s 51.4, indicating continued weak demand.
  • Production Index rose 3.2 pts MoM to 51.0, returning to expansion for the first time in months and signaling higher output.
  • Employment Index increased 1.5 pts MoM to 45.3, improving from 43.8 in August but still in contraction, reflecting labor market pressure.
  • Supplier Deliveries Index rose 0.7 pts MoM to 52.6, suggesting slightly greater supply chain pressures.
  • Prices Index declined 1.8 pts MoM to 61.9, showing some easing though cost pressures remain elevated.
  • New Export Orders Index dropped 2.2 pts MoM to 43.0, highlighting weak external demand.

Overall, US manufacturing in September showed modest improvement, with rising production as a key positive, while new orders and employment remained challenging. In the short term, the sector is still constrained by weak demand and tariff-related cost pressures, and manufacturing activity is expected to hover near contraction through October and November. The medium-term (within six months) outlook will depend on global economic recovery and policy adjustments. If demand gradually rebounds and drives new orders, the sector may improve further; otherwise, it could remain limited by supply chain bottlenecks and rising costs.