China's Q3 GDP Growth at 4.8%, Efforts Needed to Meet Annual Target

2025-10-21

China’s GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, marking the slowest pace of expansion so far this year and a clear decline from 5.2% in the second quarter. For the first three quarters, cumulative GDP growth reached 5.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the same period last year. However, the quarterly growth falling below the 5% target underscores the mounting economic headwinds amid a more complex global trade environment and ongoing domestic structural adjustments.

Key data indicators are as follows:

  • Industrial production in September rose by 6.5% YoY, slowing from the previous month.
  • Retail sales grew by 3.0% YoY, indicating continued weakness in domestic demand.
  • Fixed asset investment maintained steady growth in the first three quarters.
  • The surveyed urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, unchanged from the first half of the year.
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.1% YoY, while core CPI rose by 0.6%. The September increase of 1.0% marked the fifth consecutive month of expansion.

China’s total GDP reached approximately RMB 354.5 trillion in the first three quarters, reflecting a stable yet slowing economic scale.

In summary, China’s economy is navigating both external pressures and internal restructuring challenges. In the short term (1–2 months), export growth may provide temporary support, but the sluggish property market and deflationary pressures continue to weigh on domestic demand. Over the medium term (within six months), sustained policy stimulus and accelerated structural reforms could help stabilize growth and bring it closer to the annual target of around 5%, though achieving this goal will require considerable effort.