U.S. Delays September Nonfarm Payroll Report: Employment Stabilizes, Unemployment Slightly Rises

By ariachiang

2025-11-21

In September, U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000, rebounding sharply from the revised August figure of -4,000 and surpassing the market expectation of a 50,000 increase. The unemployment rate edged up from 4.3% to 4.4%, an unusual situation where employment rises while the unemployment rate also climbs. The year-on-year growth of average hourly earnings remained at 3.8%, indicating that wage pressures have not eased significantly. This serves as an important data point for observing changes in the U.S. labor market and economy.

Detailed Data and Influencing Factors:

  • The labor force participation rate slightly rose from 62.3% to 62.4%, reflecting increased market activity.
  • August employment data was revised from 22,000 to -4,000, and July data was lowered by 7,000, resulting in a total two-month decline of 33,000 jobs.
  • The private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding the expected 25,000, but layoffs surged by 183.1%, reflecting short-term labor market volatility and structural adjustments.

The data shows that the U.S. labor market exhibits both resilience and uncertainty. In the short term (1–2 months), since the employment data for October and November will be released late due to the government shutdown, the Fed will be unable to reference the latest complete figures for these two months. As a result, the Fed may delay or cancel its rate-cut plans in December, and the stock market could face significant correction risks. Over the medium term (within six months), the outcome will depend on the labor market’s persistence and inflationary pressures. The Fed may adjust its policies again in early 2026 to respond to economic shifts.

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