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Continuing Jobless Claims Rise to 1.862 Million, Slightly Exceeding Expectations; Labor Market Remains Resilient Amid Winter Storm Disturbances

By AI Insights

2026-02-13

Trend analysis based on the updated indicator. View the Indicator→

Core Overview: According to the latest DataTrack data, U.S. continuing jobless claims (Continuing Claims) for the week ending January 30 recorded 1.862 million, an increase of 18,000 from the previous value of 1.844 million, and slightly higher than the market consensus of 1.85 million. This is the second consecutive weekly rise in this data, indicating that after experiencing seasonal lows at the beginning of the year, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits is gradually returning to long-term average levels, but it has not yet broken through the high-pressure zone of approximately 1.90 million seen in the second half of 2025.

Key Details: Simultaneously released Initial Claims were 227,000, a decrease of 5,000 from last week, but still higher than the 222,000 expected by analysts; the four-week moving average rose to 219,500. Overall, although initial and continuing claims data showed slight fluctuations, they still hover within a historically healthy range (200,000-250,000 for initial claims, 1.80-1.90 million for continuing claims). This aligns with the trend in the recent Non-Farm Payrolls report showing the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%, corroborating that the labor market has not experienced a structural collapse.

In-depth Attribution: Regarding the fluctuations in this data, analysis from institutions such as Morningstar and Seeking Alpha points out that "Winter Storm Fern" and extreme cold weather recently affecting parts of the U.S. were major disturbing factors, leading to temporary closures of some government offices or application backlogs, thereby causing short-term distortions in the data. Nasdaq analysts also commented that the current data trend is more of a "Reverting to the norm" after holiday seasonal factors subside, rather than the start of a wave of mass layoffs. Companies are currently generally adopting a "Labor Hoarding" strategy, meaning they do not easily lay off staff but are slowing down hiring.

Outlook and Risks: In the short term (1-2 months), as weather factors and seasonal fluctuations normalize, continuing claims are expected to oscillate between 1.80 million and 1.90 million. If it can maintain within this range, it will continue to support the "soft landing" narrative. In the medium term (3-6 months), the market needs to closely watch whether continuing claims break through the 2 million mark, which would be a key signal of significant labor market cooling. If employment data continues to show resilience, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may delay the timing of rate cuts, just as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) noted that strong employment data has slightly suppressed market expectations for aggressive rate cuts.

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