US Services Business Activity Index Surges to 59.9, Hitting a Near Two-Year High, as Domestic Demand and Exports Rebound in Sync

US Continuing Jobless Claims Rise to 1.868 Million, Exceeding Expectations; Labor Market Under Pressure from Tepid Hiring and Geopolitical Risks

According to the latest DataTrack data, US continuing jobless claims for the week ending February 21 recorded 1.868 million, a significant rebound from the previous period (February 14) of 1.833 million, with an increase of 35,000. This data not only reversed the previous week's downward trend but also exceeded the 1.845 million to 1.85 million range expected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and Reuters. The climb in continuing claims is usually regarded as a lagging indicator of labor market inventory, suggesting that while layoffs have not exploded on a large scale, the job search cycle for existing unemployed persons is lengthening. Regarding key details, although continuing claims moved higher, the simultaneously released Initial Claims were 213,000, flat against the previous value and lower than the expected 215,000, indicating that the pace of corporate layoffs remains under control. However, the 4-week moving average for continuing jobless claims rose to approximately 1.851 million, reflecting potential structural pressure. Market analysis points out that the divergence of such data (low initial claims, high continuing claims) usually implies "Tepid Hiring," meaning that while companies are not laying off staff, they are not in a rush to fill vacancies either. Regarding this data shift, Nancy Vanden Houten, Lead US Economist at Oxford Economics, noted that despite the volatile jump in continuing claims data, overall labor market conditions remain "stable," and are expected to improve as 2026 progresses. However, institutions such as TipRanks added that in addition to the noise in the employment data itself, current market sentiment is highly disturbed by macro events such as the "US-Iran conflict entering its sixth day" and President Trump's tariff policies being rejected by the Supreme Court. These uncertainties may cause companies to adopt a wait-and-see attitude toward expanding hiring in the near term. Looking ahead to the next 1-2 months, as geopolitical risks (such as the US-Iran war) ferment, business confidence may suffer further blows. Close attention must be paid to whether continuing claims break through the psychological barrier of 1.9 million; if breached, this could be seen as a signal of significant deterioration in the labor market. In the medium term (3-6 months), if initial jobless claims can remain at a low level below 220,000, and if the geopolitical conflict does not evolve into a full-scale energy crisis, the US economy still has a chance to achieve a soft landing. However, if continuing claims remain persistently high, it will suppress consumer spending and increase the risk of recession. Web Search References: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/us-jobless-claims-unchanged-slightly-upwardly-revised-level https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/continuing-jobless-claims