Trend analysis based on the updated indicator.
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I. Core Overview:
According to the latest data provided by DataTrack, the US JOLTS voluntary quits for Q1 2026 (observation value 2026-02-01) significantly declined to 2.974 million, a sharp reduction from the previous 3.137 million. This is not only the first time recently that quits have fallen below the 3 million mark, but it also confirms a rapid cooling of the labor market. Although total job openings remain around 6.9 million, the sluggish number of quits highlights a severe loss of market momentum.
II. Key Details:
Breaking down the detailed data, the overall Quits Rate further dropped to 1.9%, hovering at low levels below 2% for several consecutive months. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, the freeze in the service sector was particularly severe; notably, the number of quits in the accommodation and food services sector plunged by 119,000 in a single month, while wholesale trade and federal government agencies also saw simultaneous declines, with only non-durable goods manufacturing showing a slight increase.
III. In-depth Attribution:
Institutions have issued unanimous stagnation warnings regarding this phenomenon. Indeed Hiring Lab pointed out that the labor market is "stuck in neutral" in a deadlock of "low hiring, low firing," with workers exhibiting strong risk aversion and hesitating to change jobs easily. KPMG added that the recent DHS/TSA shutdown disrupted travel and transportation, which, coupled with high prices dampening dining and leisure demand, served as the key driver for the sudden drop in mobility within related service sectors.
IV. Outlook and Risks:
Looking ahead, workers' risk-averse sentiment will be difficult to reverse in the short term (1-2 months), and the quits rate will continue to hover at a low level. In particular, the geopolitical conflict in Iran that erupted at the end of February has pushed up oil prices, and the resurgence of inflation may cause corporate hiring to become even more conservative. In the medium term (3-6 months), vigilance is needed against the risk of stagflation; if corporate profits remain under pressure, the current "no hiring, no firing" balance could be broken and shift towards actual layoffs, posing a severe test for an economic soft landing.
V. Web Search Reference Sources:
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