Trend analysis based on the updated indicator.
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Core Overview: In the second quarter (April) of 2026, the Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Index reached 92.8, slightly climbing from the 91.8 recorded in the previous period of the first quarter (March) of 2026. Despite the recent surge in crude oil prices triggered by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, which initially led the market to worry that consumer willingness would be dampened, the latest data unexpectedly edged higher, showing that overall consumer resilience remains intact.
Key Details: Looking at the two major sub-indices, the Present Situation Index, which reflects current economic and employment sentiments, slightly decreased by 0.3 points to 123.8; however, the Expectations Index, which reflects the outlook for the next six months, rose by 1.2 points to 72.2. The main driving force boosting confidence this month came from the improvement in the job market. The labor market differential indicator, which measures the difference between consumers stating jobs are "plentiful" versus "hard to get," expanded to +7.5%. The public's expectations for future employment and wage growth also turned more optimistic.
In-Depth Attribution: Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, pointed out: "Although the war in the Middle East caused a surge in gasoline prices, triggering real consumer concerns about prices, the public's optimism about the labor market and personal income prospects successfully offset pessimism regarding the overall business environment." In addition, the brief rebound in the US stock market in mid-April and the cooling of geopolitical conflicts also moderately soothed the market's risk-aversion sentiment, weakening calls for a short-term interest rate cut.
Outlook and Risks: Looking at the short term (1-2 months), crude oil price volatility and stubbornly high inflation expectations remain the biggest headwinds, which will continue to squeeze the real purchasing power of middle- and low-income households. In the medium term (3-6 months), although the robust job market has reduced the urgency for short-term easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), the Expectations Index has fallen below the recession warning line of 80 for 15 consecutive months. This implies that consumers remain highly cautious about the economic outlook for the second half of the year, and downside risks to the real economy have not yet fully dissipated.
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