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US Q1 JOLTS Quits Rebound Slightly to 3.171 Million, Labor Market Continues "Low Hiring, Low Layoffs" Pattern

By AI Insights

2026-05-06

Trend analysis based on the updated indicator. View the Indicator→

Core Overview The newly released US JOLTS quits for Q1 2026 reached 3,171 thousand (3.171 million), a rebound from the previous 2,974 thousand (2.974 million). Although the number of quits rebounded slightly compared to the previous month, the overall number of job openings during the same period fell to 6.866 million, only slightly above the market expectation of 6.85 million. The overall labor market continues to present a distinct equilibrium of "low hiring, low layoffs", reflecting that employment supply and demand are gradually cooling.

Key Details Looking closely at the changes in this data, the quits rate rebounded slightly to 2.0%, while the number of layoffs and discharges remained at about 1.9 million (the layoff rate slightly increased to 1.2%). Furthermore, although the number of hires during the same period rebounded to 5.6 million, the growth was mainly concentrated in the transportation, warehousing, and leisure and hospitality sectors. Conversely, job openings in the professional and business services sector led the decline, highlighting that most companies remain cautious about workforce expansion.

In-depth Attribution The rebound in quits this time has not reversed the overall conservative mentality of workers regarding job prospects. Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist at LPL Financial, pointed out: "Uncertainty in the job market has significantly suppressed the willingness of most workers to voluntarily change jobs; at the same time, the corporate side has also scaled back the pace of hiring in response to cost pressures." Foreign media analysis also suggests that companies continue to face operating cost tests amid high inflation, leading to constrained expansion intentions, and workers subsequently placing more importance on the stability of their current jobs.

Outlook and Risks In the short term (1-2 months), the dynamic of "low hiring, low layoffs" will continue to dominate the market. If subsequent employment data, such as nonfarm payrolls, confirm further cooling of the labor market, it will strengthen market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt a looser monetary policy, which could put pressure on the US dollar. The core risk in the medium term (3-6 months) is whether persistent high costs will force companies to shift from a "hiring freeze" to "actual layoffs." If quits fall below the 3 million mark again in the coming months and the layoff rate rises significantly, it will increase concerns about an economic recession and become a key catalyst driving the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts.

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