Share

U.S. Equity Momentum Trade Cools, Funds Shift Toward Low-Volatility and Defensive Assets

2026-07-09

In the first half of 2026, global equity markets were mainly driven by AI capital expenditure, the semiconductor supply chain, and large-cap technology stocks. However, after entering late June to early July, the market began to reassess the earnings visibility of high-valuation growth stocks. Investors are no longer simply chasing the AI growth narrative, and have started to place greater emphasis on whether companies can convert capital expenditure into revenue, cash flow, and investment returns.

High-Beta Momentum Trades Correct Rapidly as AI Valuations Enter Verification Phase

The rapid correction in high-beta momentum trades is the clearest signal of this style rotation. Goldman Sachs’ High-Beta Momentum Basket (GSPRHIMO) fell 18% over two trading days in early July, marking its largest two-day decline since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Goldman Sachs noted that the momentum factor had once risen by about 127% year-to-date, but has since pulled back by about 24% from its peak, with the pace of this correction significantly faster than the historical average. This shows that positions with large prior gains, high valuations, and crowded positioning are more sensitive to liquidity tightening and profit-taking.

The semiconductor sector is one of the main sources of pressure in this round of adjustment. Morgan Stanley pointed out in early July that the upward momentum of previously strong semiconductor stocks is weakening, and funds may rotate toward relatively lagging hyperscalers, as well as parts of consumer, transportation, biotechnology and healthcare sectors that may benefit from catch-up rotation. This type of rotation shows that investors are no longer chasing semiconductor stocks indiscriminately, but are instead looking for next-in-line opportunities whose valuations have not yet fully reflected potential upside. Although the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index continues to benefit from demand for AI infrastructure, after valuations have already largely reflected growth expectations, the market has begun to question whether AI capital expenditure can quickly translate into corporate revenue and investment returns. By comparison, hyperscalers still have support from core business cash flow, leading funds to reassess whether the valuation gap between chipmakers and cloud service providers is reasonable.

ETF Fund Flows Show U.S. Equities Still Attract Inflows, but Market Structure Is Changing

ETF fund flows further show that U.S. equities remain a major allocation destination for global capital, but the internal structure is changing. According to Bloomberg ETF fund flow statistics as of July 8, 2026, U.S. equities recorded about US$547.4 billion in net inflows year-to-date, of which large-cap stocks attracted about US$498.1 billion, significantly higher than small-cap stocks. This indicates that funds remain in the U.S. equity market, but preferences are shifting toward large companies with better liquidity, more stable financial quality, and higher earnings visibility.

Asset Class Fund Flows Over the Past Week Fund Flows Over the Past Month Year-to-Date Fund Flows Market Implication
U.S. Equities US$37.1 billion US$138.0 billion US$547.4 billion Funds continue to concentrate in U.S. equities
Growth Stocks US$5.8 billion US$26.9 billion US$119.3 billion Growth style has not exited, but willingness to chase prices has declined
Value Stocks US$4.3 billion US$16.0 billion US$60.7 billion Low-valuation and cash-flow assets are gaining attention
Large-Cap Stocks US$31.2 billion US$127.2 billion US$498.1 billion Funds prefer high-quality large-cap stocks
Small-Cap Stocks US$1.2 billion US$7.3 billion US$7.2 billion Risk appetite has not yet broadened fully

At the same time, global equity markets still maintained positive returns, but the structure of gains is no longer completely dominated by a single technology theme. As of July 8, the MSCI World Index was up 10.37% year-to-date, the U.S. was up 10.28%, Europe was up 11.30%, Japan was up 20.10%, and emerging Asia was up 24.92%. By contrast, the Chinese market was still down 13.70% year-to-date, showing clear divergence across regional markets. This divergence is prompting funds to look for defensive and low-volatility positions within U.S. equities, while also reassessing regional allocation and valuation safety margins across global markets.

High Valuations, Capital Expenditure and Crowded Positioning Drive Demand for Defensive Assets

  1. Defensive assets are receiving renewed attention mainly due to three factors:
    High-valuation technology stocks are more sensitive to interest rates and discount rates. When the Federal Reserve’s policy path remains unclear and long-end yields remain volatile, valuation pressure on high-P/E assets can easily intensify.
  2. AI capital expenditure has entered a verification phase. Large technology companies continue to invest in data centers, chips, and cloud infrastructure, but the market is beginning to demand that these investments be reflected in revenue, gross margin, free cash flow, and return on capital.
  3. Momentum trades remain crowded. If funds are concentrated in a small number of AI and semiconductor heavyweight stocks, once earnings or guidance fail to exceed market expectations, systematic funds, hedge funds, and short-term capital may reduce positions at the same time.

Therefore, financials, healthcare, consumer staples, and parts of the industrial sector have become the main defensive directions in this round of capital rotation. Financial stocks benefit from relatively low valuations, stronger capital return capacity, and a certain degree of spread support under a higher-rate environment. Healthcare demand is less affected by economic cycles, while large pharmaceutical companies and biotechnology firms also have merger and acquisition opportunities and product pipeline revaluation themes. Consumer staples and retail channels, due to demand rigidity, stable cash flow, and pricing power, are more likely to be viewed by funds as low-volatility allocations when market volatility rises.

The bond market is showing a similar logic, but investors are not looking for pure hedging; rather, they are seeking allocations that combine income and defensiveness. Bloomberg statistics show that as of July 8, global high-yield bonds were up 2.29% year-to-date, outperforming global government bonds and long-term U.S. Treasuries. In terms of fund flows, investment-grade bonds recorded about US$133.9 billion in net inflows year-to-date, indicating that in an environment where long-end yields remain volatile, investors prefer income-generating assets with stronger credit quality and relatively controllable interest rate risk.

Earnings, Rates and Market Breadth to Determine Whether the Rotation Can Continue

Going forward, whether the rotation in U.S. equities can continue will depend on second-quarter earnings, interest rates, and market breadth. The earnings season will be the first test of AI capital expenditure returns, as the market watches whether large technology companies can translate investments in data centers, cloud infrastructure, and AI software into cloud revenue, subscription revenue, data center utilization, and gross margin improvement. Interest rates will determine whether high-valuation assets can expand their valuation multiples again. If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains elevated, technology stocks will continue to face higher discount-rate pressure. Market breadth is also an important indicator for assessing the health of the rotation. If the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index continues to outperform the market-cap-weighted index, it would indicate that funds are spreading from a small number of AI heavyweights to more sectors. Conversely, if the broader market remains highly dependent on a small number of technology giants, concentration risk could again be amplified by earnings or technical pressure.

Looking ahead over the coming months, AI remains the medium- to long-term growth theme for U.S. equities, but the trading logic has shifted toward valuation discipline and earnings verification. For global capital, U.S. equities remain attractive, but the second half of the year is more likely to show a structure of “large-cap support, technology stock divergence, defensive stocks filling the gap, and income assets attracting inflows.” Whether corporate earnings can keep up with valuations will determine whether the AI theme can continue. Before high-valuation assets deliver clearer cash flow results, low-volatility and defensive assets will continue to serve as a capital safe haven.