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AI-Related Industries to Contribute More Than Half of Singapore’s Economic Growth, While Slower Wage Growth Highlights the Concentration of the Expansion

2026-08-05

Global investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure continues to expand, driving demand in Singapore for semiconductors, server-related products, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) expects technology-related industries to contribute the majority of Singapore’s economic growth in 2026, exceeding the approximately 50% share recorded in 2025. This figure refers to the technology sector’s contribution to the increase in annual economic growth, rather than its output accounting for more than half of GDP.

Singapore’s economy remains strong, but its sources of growth are becoming increasingly concentrated. GDP grew 5.7% year over year in the second quarter, while manufacturing expanded by 12.2%. Growth in most service sectors and construction, however, slowed from the previous quarter. At the same time, year-over-year growth in average nominal monthly earnings eased from 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 3.3% in the first quarter. This indicates that rapid growth in AI-related production and exports has not yet translated into broad-based wage increases and domestic demand expansion across industries.

Manufacturing Supported Second-Quarter Growth as Industrial Divergence Continued to Widen

According to the advance estimate released by Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), GDP grew 5.7% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, down from 6.3% in the previous quarter. On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP increased by 1.1% quarter over quarter. Manufacturing was the main growth engine during the quarter, with electronics and precision engineering benefiting from demand for AI semiconductors and related equipment and significantly outperforming other industries. Growth in construction, wholesale and retail trade, and most service sectors slowed from the previous quarter, while chemicals, biomedical manufacturing, and general manufacturing contracted. This shows that although Singapore’s economy continued to grow strongly, its momentum remained highly concentrated in AI-related supply chains.

Table 1: Performance of Singapore’s Major Industries in the Second Quarter of 2026

Item Performance in 2Q26 Previous-Period Comparison Current Assessment
GDP growth, year over year 5.7% 6.3% in 1Q26 The economy remained strong, but growth slowed slightly from the previous quarter
GDP growth, seasonally adjusted quarter over quarter 1.1% 1.3% in 1Q26 Expansion continued, but momentum weakened slightly
Manufacturing 12.2% 8.0% in 1Q26 Electronics and precision engineering were the main growth drivers
Construction 6.2% 12.9% in 1Q26 Year-over-year growth remained high but slowed significantly
Construction, seasonally adjusted quarter over quarter -2.1% 7.4% in 1Q26 Shifted from expansion to contraction
Wholesale and retail trade, transportation and storage 6.3% 9.3% in 1Q26 Continued to grow, but at a slower pace
Wholesale and retail trade, transportation and storage, seasonally adjusted quarter over quarter -0.3% 3.5% in 1Q26 Short-term momentum weakened
Information and communications, finance and insurance, and professional services 3.9% 4.5% in 1Q26 Growth remained stable but did not accelerate significantly
Accommodation and food services, real estate, and other services 2.7% 3.2% in 1Q26 Domestic service activity continued to expand, but at a relatively slow pace

Table 2: Singapore Manufacturing Output Performance in June 2026

Manufacturing Segment Year-over-Year Growth Key Assessment
Overall manufacturing 7.2% Overall output continued to grow, but internal divergence was significant
Electronics 21.3% AI and semiconductor demand remained strong
Precision engineering 14.9% Supported by semiconductor equipment and advanced manufacturing demand
Chemicals -11.7% Weighed down by raw material supply and cost pressures
Biomedical manufacturing -11.4% Affected by product mix and base effects
General manufacturing -6.8% Faced weaker external demand and greater cost pressure
Overall manufacturing, seasonally adjusted month over month -7.2% Year-over-year growth remained high, but monthly production was volatile

Technology Accounts for About One-Fifth of GDP but Contributes Most of the Incremental Growth

Technology-related industries accounted for approximately 22% of Singapore’s nominal GDP in 2025, but their growth rate was much higher than that of the overall economy. MAS therefore expects their contribution to economic growth in 2026 to exceed the approximately 50% level recorded in 2025. AI capital expenditure is not only increasing semiconductor and equipment output, but also supporting demand for data storage, communications products, wholesale trade, air freight, and warehousing.

This structure allows Singapore to generate a relatively large increase in GDP from a technology sector that represents a smaller share of total output, but it also increases the economy’s sensitivity to the global AI investment cycle. If hyperscale cloud service providers maintain their investment in data centers and hardware, electronics manufacturing, precision engineering, and related trade services could continue to support growth in the second half of the year. If corporate earnings are unable to sustain the current scale of investment, however, the adjustment could quickly spread to production, exports, and logistics activity.

The Second-Half Outlook Is Positive, but Business Optimism Remains Concentrated in the AI Supply Chain

The latest survey by the Economic Development Board (EDB) showed that 24% of manufacturers expected business conditions to improve between July and December 2026, while 12% expected conditions to weaken, resulting in a net weighted balance of positive 12%. The net weighted outlook for precision engineering and electronics stood at positive 55% and positive 19%, respectively, while chemicals and general manufacturing recorded negative 25% and negative 13%. These figures represent the weighted difference between the share of firms expecting improvement and the share expecting deterioration, rather than output growth rates.

Manufacturers’ overall net weighted expectation for third-quarter production stood at positive 26%, with electronics and precision engineering at positive 49% and positive 55%, respectively. The chemicals sector was affected by Middle East-related disruptions to raw material supplies and maintenance shutdowns, while general manufacturing faced weaker export demand and cost pressures. The outlook for the services sector also turned positive, with the net weighted balance rising from negative 4% in the previous survey to positive 13%, mainly supported by wholesale demand for AI servers and networking equipment, the peak travel season, and major events.

The Labor Market Remains Resilient, but the Transmission to Resident Employment and Wages Is Weaker

Total employment increased by 10,700 in the second quarter of 2026, marking the nineteenth consecutive quarter of growth. The overall unemployment rate remained at 2.0% in June, while the resident unemployment rate stood at 2.9%. Retrenchments increased from 3,830 in the first quarter to 4,500, mainly due to corporate restructuring in some externally oriented industries, but remained below levels typically seen during recessions.

Employment growth was driven mainly by non-resident workers in construction and manufacturing. Resident employment continued to increase, but at a slower pace than in the first quarter and was concentrated in essential and public services such as transportation and storage, healthcare, public administration, and education. This means that the contribution of AI manufacturing to GDP and exports may not translate into resident employment gains of a similar magnitude.

Average nominal monthly earnings grew 3.3% year over year in the first quarter, down from 4.4% in the previous quarter. MAS believes that labor supply and demand are gradually moving toward balance, with wage growth returning closer to the historical average of 3.7% recorded between 2010 and 2019. Core inflation and headline inflation stood at 1.6% and 1.9%, respectively, in June. Nominal income growth therefore remained above inflation, but wages did not accelerate in line with GDP, indicating that the transmission of strong growth to household income remained limited.

Whether AI Momentum Can Broaden Will Determine the Quality of Singapore’s Growth

Singapore’s economy is still expected to receive support in the second half of 2026 from AI capital expenditure, semiconductor equipment, and related trade services. The technology sector may also generate spillover effects through corporate profits, demand for professional services, and investment confidence, partly offsetting pressures from energy costs and U.S. tariffs.

However, the fact that technology-related industries are contributing most of the incremental growth also means that the economy has become more dependent on a single global investment cycle. Going forward, attention should focus on whether AI orders can further support resident employment, corporate investment, and domestic services, as well as whether nominal income growth begins to accelerate again. If growth remains concentrated in semiconductors, equipment, and export-related supply chains, Singapore’s headline GDP figures may continue to look strong, while the breadth of the expansion and its impact on household income remain comparatively limited.