AI Capital Expenditure Floods the Bond Market as Tech Giants’ Issuance Wave Tests Market Absorption

Indian Assets Regain Foreign Investor Attention: Oil Prices, the Rupee, and Capital Flows Show Signs of Repairing Their Three-Way Relationship

Indian assets have recently returned to the radar of global capital. Over the past year or so, the Indian market had cooled due to elevated valuations, foreign investors shifting toward Taiwan and South Korea’s AI and semiconductor trades, Middle East tensions pushing oil prices higher, and depreciation pressure on the rupee. However, since late June and into July, conditions have started to change. Oil prices once fell back toward levels seen before the U.S.-Iran conflict, while India’s central bank and government also introduced measures to stabilize the rupee, attract dollar inflows, and encourage foreign purchases of Indian bonds. As a result, foreign investor interest in Indian equity and bond assets has begun to recover. The core of this shift lies in lower oil prices easing external balance and inflation pressure, a stable rupee reducing foreign investors’ currency-loss concerns, and capital inflows into Indian bonds and financial stocks improving market confidence. However, Middle East tensions and the direction of the U.S. dollar could still interrupt this recovery process. Lower Oil Prices Ease India’s External Pressure, but Middle East Tensions Remain the Biggest Variable India is one of the world’s major crude oil importers, so oil prices have a more direct impact on Indian assets than on many other emerging markets. Rising oil prices push up import costs, widen the trade deficit and inflation pressure, and weigh on the rupee. Falling oil prices, by contrast, help improve India’s external balance, lower corporate costs, and strengthen foreign investor confidence in Indian equities and bonds. Data from India’s Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) show that India’s petroleum import dependence rose to 88.2% in FY2024–2025 and further increased to 88.4% from April to September in FY2025–2026. India’s total crude oil imports also remained close to 4.9 million barrels per day in June 2026. This means changes in oil prices directly affect India’s import costs, inflation pressure, trade balance, and rupee exchange rate. From late June to early July, as Middle East tensions temporarily eased and oil prices retreated, Indian assets benefited noticeably. The rupee strengthened with support from lower oil prices and policy measures, while Indian equities were again included by some investors as a diversification option. This was especially the case after AI-heavy markets such as Taiwan and South Korea had already risen sharply, making India’s relatively lower AI exposure a source of diversification. However, this support remains fragile. On July 8, renewed U.S.-Iran tensions drove Brent crude sharply higher, putting pressure on Indian equities, the rupee, and government bonds at the same time. The Nifty 50, Sensex, rupee, and Indian government bond prices all came under pressure. By July 13, Middle East tensions and risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz again pushed oil prices higher, with Brent trading above US$78 per barrel intraday. Market focus therefore shifted back to oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and India’s external balance pressure. Rupee Stability Is a Key Precondition for Foreign Capital Returning to India The rupee is one of the most important variables foreign investors consider when reassessing Indian assets. If the rupee continues to depreciate, returns from Indian equities or bonds may still be eroded by currency losses. If the rupee can remain relatively stable, foreign investors’ willingness to enter Indian equities and bonds will increase. This is also why the Reserve Bank of India’s recent policy focus has been on attracting dollar inflows and stabilizing the foreign exchange market. In early June, the RBI announced a series of foreign exchange measures, including a concessional dollar swap facility to encourage overseas borrowing by state-owned enterprises and inflows into foreign-currency non-resident deposits. This swap facility can subsidize banks’ hedging costs for three- to five-year foreign-currency non-resident deposits and allow banks to provide leverage arrangements for related deposits. The goal is to increase dollar supply and stabilize the rupee. These policies have started to show up in corporate and market behavior. Latest data show that foreign exchange hedging activity by Indian exporters and importers rose sharply in June, with total corporate FX hedging reaching a record high. Exporters returned to the hedging market, reflecting some easing in expectations of one-way rupee depreciation. Importers’ hedging demand also increased, due to Middle East risks, oil price volatility, and the need to manage dollar costs. Short-term market reactions also show that oil prices, the rupee, and Indian equity and bond sentiment remain highly connected. On July 9, lower oil prices and possible RBI support in the FX market helped the rupee, equities, and government bond prices recover at the same time. By July 13, however, Middle East tensions had risen again, bringing market attention back to oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and currency pressure. Indicator Data timing and latest change Market interpretation Rupee exchange rate Closed at 95.3250 per U.S. dollar on July 10 The latest full trading-day close was broadly stable, but Middle East risks and oil prices continue to drive short-term movements Brent crude Around US$78.5 per barrel intraday on July 13 Renewed Middle East risks are again testing India’s external pressure Nifty 50 Rose 0.3% on July 9 Indian equity sentiment improved when oil prices retreated and the rupee stabilized India 10-year government bond yield Fell by 2 basis points on July 9; closed at 6.7139% on July 10 The bond market is still affected by oil prices, foreign bond buying, U.S. Treasury yields, and inflation data Corporate FX hedging Around US$120 billion in total in June A record high, showing companies are actively managing rupee and oil price volatility Exporter hedging US$46.3 billion, up 45% YoY Exporters increased hedging again after expectations of one-way rupee depreciation eased Importer hedging Nearly US$74 billion, up 55% YoY Oil price and dollar-cost uncertainty remain high, keeping importers’ hedging demand elevated Government Bonds Become an Important Entry Point for Policy-Led Foreign Inflows Indian policymakers have recently placed rupee stability and long-term capital inflows on the same policy track, making the government bond market an important entry point for foreign capital returning to India. Through the Fully Accessible Route (FAR), foreign investors can more directly allocate to eligible Indian government bonds. As of early July, foreign investors had net purchased around INR 346 billion, or about US$3.6 billion, of Indian government bonds through FAR since June. Foreign buying had previously pushed India’s 10-year government bond yield lower, with the yield still hovering near the 6.70% low range in early July. However, yields turned more volatile in early July, and short-term movements were no longer one-directional. On July 10, India’s 10-year government bond yield closed at 6.7139%. For the week of July 13, the market expected a trading range of 6.65% to 6.77%. Foreign bond buying remains an important support for India’s bond market, but oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, inflation data, and foreign capital flows will continue to jointly affect future bond performance. Financial Stocks Become the Main Entry Point for Foreign Investors Rebuilding Indian Equity Exposure On the equity side, foreign inflows first showed up in Indian financial stocks. In the second half of June, foreign portfolio investors bought INR 146.34 billion, or about US$1.54 billion, of Indian bank stocks, the highest half-month inflow in 14 months. During the same period, foreign investors also turned net buyers of Indian equities, with total inflows reaching INR 141.09 billion, ending four consecutive months of net selling. Financial stocks have attracted capital mainly due to policy support, valuation repair, and expectations of stable earnings. The RBI’s foreign exchange swap facility helps banks lower overseas funding costs, while the government’s removal of capital gains tax and interest income tax on certain foreign bond investments also improves incentives for international capital to enter India’s financial markets. Bank stocks rose 6.1% in June, significantly outperforming the Nifty 50’s 1.4% gain over the same period. At the same time, the funding structure of India’s stock market has also changed from the past. Even when foreign investors had previously withdrawn heavily, Indian domestic mutual funds and systematic investment plan (SIP) flows still provided market support. In June, inflows into Indian equity mutual funds rose 26.5% MoM to INR 289.73 billion, or about US$3.04 billion, marking the 64th consecutive month of net inflows. SIP inflows also rose 3% MoM to INR 317.81 billion, close to the record high reached in March. Foreign buying and selling still affect Indian equities, but as the domestic capital pool continues to expand, the market is no longer driven solely by foreign investors, and its ability to absorb external capital volatility has improved. Indian Asset Revaluation Still Needs Support From Corporate Earnings The initial recovery in foreign investor interest in India mostly reflects position rebuilding after oil and rupee pressure eased. For equities, India’s long-term growth story remains attractive, including its demographic dividend, domestic demand expansion, infrastructure investment, and financial deepening. However, Indian equities have long traded at relatively high valuations, so for capital to shift from short-term covering to medium- and long-term allocation, corporate earnings still need to catch up with valuations. Financial results, bank asset quality, consumer demand, and policy continuity will be key variables for foreign investors judging whether the recovery in Indian assets can continue. The bond market also has fundamental constraints to watch. Although India’s 10-year government bond yield has retreated, its absolute level remains higher than that of most major economies. The government’s interest burden and fiscal space remain long-term concerns for the market. For India to attract more stable foreign bond inflows, it will need to maintain rupee stability, policy transparency, and bond market liquidity, while convincing international investors that capital inflows are not just short-term arbitrage, but can also become part of the internationalization of India’s bond market. Key Watchpoints Ahead: Whether Oil Prices, the Rupee, and Foreign Bond Buying Can Stay Stable The key for Indian assets going forward remains whether oil prices, the rupee, and foreign bond buying can stay stable. When oil prices surged on July 8 due to geopolitical risks, Indian equities, the rupee, and bonds all came under pressure at the same time. This shows that energy prices remain the most direct external pressure source for Indian assets. If oil prices rise sharply again, India’s inflation, current account, and currency pressures could all increase again, while foreign inflows could easily turn more cautious. India is now being included again in some foreign allocation discussions mainly because oil and rupee pressures have eased compared with earlier levels, while policy measures have attracted capital into Indian government bonds and financial stocks. Compared with the concentration risk after the sharp rise in Taiwan and South Korea’s AI trades, India offers another emerging market allocation logic: domestic demand resilience, valuation repair, bond inflows, and domestic capital support. In the coming weeks, markets will focus on whether oil prices remain manageable, whether USD/INR stays within the 95–96 range, whether foreign investors continue buying Indian government bonds, and whether corporate earnings can support further revaluation of Indian equities.