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US Q2 2026 Core CPI YoY Growth Retreats to 2.6% Below Expectations, Cooling Inflation Expected to Ease Fed Policy Pressure

By AI Insights

2026-07-15

Trend analysis based on the updated indicator. View the Indicator→

According to the latest data, the US Q2 2026 (June) core CPI YoY growth further slowed to 2.6% [1], which is not only lower than the previous period's 2.8% but also significantly falls below the market's initial consensus estimate of 2.8% [1]. In terms of single-month growth, the seasonally adjusted core CPI for June remained flat month-on-month (0.0%), marking the weakest single-month performance in recent years and substantially lower than the market expectation of a 0.2% increase. The unexpected cooling of the overall core inflation data has injected a shot in the arm into the market, indicating that US price pressures are materially easing.

Looking at the breakdown of performance, the cooling of core inflation this time has a broad base [3]. According to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, motor vehicle insurance, communication, apparel (a single-month drop of 0.6%), and used car prices all saw significant declines; medical care services also edged down by 0.1% [3]. On the other hand, the highly sticky shelter costs maintained a modest month-on-month increase of just 0.1%, effectively curbing the expansion of core services inflation. If food and energy are included, the overall CPI declined by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the largest single-month drop since April 2020 [3].

This wave of price retreat is primarily attributed to the weakness in core goods prices and the drastic fluctuations in energy prices. Prior to the data release, Goldman Sachs accurately pointed out that the softening of used car and shelter costs would be the key driver in pulling down core inflation [1]. In addition, a research report by CITIC Securities analyzed that US core service items showed zero growth, indicating that the secondary inflation effect is weak and the overall CPI YoY growth has been confirmed to have passed its peak in this cycle [2]. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated a "zero tolerance" for high inflation during his congressional testimony, the market generally believes that this weak data will give the Federal Reserve more room to keep interest rates unchanged [2].

Looking ahead, the inflation path remains full of variables. In the short term (1-2 months), the biggest risk comes from geopolitical headwinds; the recent breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement has led to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and international oil prices and national gasoline prices have already shown signs of a rebound, which may once again push up the overall CPI. In the medium term (3-6 months), core inflation is expected to maintain a mild downward trend, especially in a high-interest-rate environment, where the cooling of the labor market and consumer demand will further suppress rent and service industry prices. If core inflation steadily approaches the 2% target, it will bring a strong catalyst for risk assets.

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