Trump's Executive Orders at a Glance: From Tariffs to Immigration

Which President led the best U.S. economy? Clinton to Biden

The transition of power between U.S. presidents has always been a major focus on the political stage and a critical barometer for global financial markets. As Donald Trump returns to the White House on January 20, market reactions to potential policy directions have already been significant. In anticipation of his inauguration, the S&P 500 surged to 6,000, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields climbed to 4.6%, and the Dollar Index approached the 110 mark. These market movements reflect both the uncertainty surrounding new policies and the profound impact Trump’s stance on major domestic and international issues may have. Looking back at the terms of recent U.S. presidents, from economic reforms and geopolitical conflicts to global crises, their strategies have deeply influenced investor confidence and financial market trends worldwide. Below is an overview of the key policies and market performances under recent presidents, along with their broader economic and financial implications: Bill Clinton: From Deficit Reversal to the Prosperous Era of the Internet Frenzy n the early years of his presidency, Bill Clinton enacted the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994, creating the largest free trade zone in the world, encompassing the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. On the fiscal front, Clinton faced a $200 billion deficit left by former President George H. W. Bush and implemented measures to cut government spending and raise taxes, transforming the deficit into a surplus. Clinton’s tenure was marked by a booming internet technology sector, driving economic prosperity. By the end of his term, the U.S. economy had grown for 112 consecutive months, unemployment had dropped from a peak of 7.8% to 3.9%, and inflation was maintained between 2–3%. The stock market also surged, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ soaring from around 400 points at the beginning of his term to over 5,000 points. Read more at Datatrack However, Clinton’s presidency was not without challenges. From 1995 to 1996, disputes between Democrats and Republicans over budget planning led to a 21-day government shutdown, the longest in U.S. history at the time. Scandals such as the "Monica Lewinsky affair" almost resulted in his impeachment by the House of Representatives. Additionally, the frenzied development of the internet sector set the stage for the subsequent "dot-com bubble," which began bursting in early 2000, causing the NASDAQ to nearly halve to around 2,700 points by the end of his presidency. Read more at Datatrack   George W. Bush: A Turbulent Era of the War on Terror and the Global Financial Crisis Bush’s early presidency faced significant challenges, including the 2001 "dot-com bubble burst" and the 9/11 terrorist attacks. To combat economic recession and rising unemployment, Bush introduced tax cuts totaling $1.35 trillion in 2001 and $350 billion in 2003. Combined with the Federal Reserve’s 11 consecutive rate cuts, these measures facilitated economic recovery, with the S&P 500 rebounding to approximately 1,500 points. However, the recovery was short-lived. The Federal Reserve raised rates from 2004 to 2006 to curb inflationary pressures, tightening the once-lax housing market conditions. Subprime mortgage issues surfaced in 2007, culminating in a global financial crisis by 2008. Major financial institutions collapsed or faced liquidity crises. Despite the Fed’s swift return to rate cuts and the introduction of unlimited quantitative easing (QE), market panic persisted, with the S&P 500 plunging below 800 points. Although the Bush administration collaborated with Congress to implement financial rescue measures such as the TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program), the U.S. economy remained in deep recession. Read more at Datatrack   Barack Obama: The Road to Recovery from the Subprime Crisis and Financial Reform Obama assumed office during the aftermath of the subprime crisis, with a struggling economy and high unemployment. In February 2009, he enacted the $787 billion "American Recovery and Reinvestment Act," which included $286 billion in tax cuts and over $500 billion in government spending to stimulate growth. To prevent future crises, the Obama administration also introduced the "Dodd-Frank Act" in July 2010, strengthening safeguards against systemic risks in the financial sector. Under Obama, the U.S. economy gradually recovered, supported by prolonged low interest rates, QE2, QE3, and fiscal policies. Unemployment fell from a peak of around 10% to 4–5%, while inflation remained controlled. The S&P 500 rebounded from a low of 700 points in early 2009 and reached new highs after 2013. In December 2015, the Fed initiated its first rate hike in nearly a decade, ending a seven-year era of zero interest rates. Read more at Datatrack By the end of Obama’s term, the S&P 500 surpassed 2,200 points, marking a prolonged bull market. Read more at Datatrack   Donald Trump: Market Maneuvers Amid Tax Cuts, Trade Wars, and the Pandemic In late 2017, Trump enacted the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" (TCJA), the largest tax reform since 1986, lowering corporate tax rates from 35% to 21% and reducing individual tax burdens to spur growth. Meanwhile, Trump’s "America First" policy led to tariffs on major trading partners like China and the EU and renegotiation of NAFTA, culminating in the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement). Despite ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, the economy grew at a steady 2–3%, with inflation and unemployment remaining stable. The S&P 500 rose to over 3,200 points by 2019. Read more at Datatrack However, the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 triggered a global economic crisis, pushing unemployment from 3.5% to 14.8%. Massive fiscal measures, such as the CARES Act, and the Fed’s rapid return to zero interest rates helped markets recover. By the end of Trump’s term, the S&P 500 had climbed back to around 3,700 points Read more at Datatrack   Joe Biden: A New Chapter of Governance in Post-Pandemic Recovery and Inflation Challenges Biden’s presidency began during the post-pandemic recovery, with vaccines becoming widely available but economic and public health challenges persisting. His "American Rescue Plan" provided direct payments, unemployment benefits, and business loans to accelerate recovery. Biden also advanced the "Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act" to modernize infrastructure and create jobs. However, with market demand rebounding, supply chain bottlenecks, and rising global raw material prices, inflation surged significantly in the second half of 2021. To curb overheating inflation, the Federal Reserve began tapering bond purchases at the end of 2021 and initiated quantitative tightening (QT) and a rate hike cycle in 2022. The Biden administration also signed the Inflation Reduction Act to ease inflationary pressures. As a result, concerns over stagflation and economic recession intensified, leading the S&P 500 Index to retreat to around 3,700 points. Against the backdrop of the Fed continuing to raise interest rates to restrictive levels and implementing QT, core inflation gradually fell from its 2022 peak of 6% to over 4% in 2023, with supply-demand imbalances also improving. Despite the restrictive rate environment suppressing market demand, the wealth effect created during the pandemic kept U.S. consumer spending strong, further boosting confidence in a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. At the same time, the explosion of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in 2023 propelled the S&P 500 Index back above 4,700 points, its pre-rate hike level. Read more at Datatrack Entering 2024, market and labor demand gradually slowed under the influence of restrictive interest rates, but optimism around a "soft landing" persisted. The S&P 500 Index continued to rise to around 5,600 points, driven by the strong performance of AI-related stocks. Although mid-year labor market data cooled, shifting market sentiment toward pessimism, the Federal Reserve initiated rate cuts in September. However, economic data in the following months showed that the labor market remained healthy and consumer spending resilient, leading to renewed optimism in the market. By the end of the year, the S&P 500 Index had surged past the 6,000-point mark. Read more at Datatrack Since the 1990s, U.S. presidents have shaped global financial markets through economic policy, fiscal measures, trade strategies, and monetary policy decisions. From Clinton’s internet boom and free trade to Bush’s response to the dot-com bust and 9/11, Obama’s recovery from the subprime crisis, Trump’s tax cuts and protectionism, and Biden’s post-pandemic initiatives, each administration’s policies have significantly influenced the trajectories of stocks, bonds, and currencies. For investors and the global economy, understanding the dynamic relationship between U.S. presidential policies and financial markets remains an essential and ongoing task.