US June Retail Sales Rebound Hits Multi-Year High, Consumer Momentum Remains Optimistic

2025-07-18

In June 2025, US retail and food services sales reached $720.1 billion, a 0.6% increase from the prior month and a 3.9% year-on-year rise—surpassing expectations of just 0.1% growth. This marks the first uptick after two months of declines, reflecting improved consumer confidence and sentiment.

The main itemized performances for the month include (MoM):

  • Miscellaneous store retailers: +1.8%
  • Motor vehicles and parts: +1.2%
  • Building materials and garden equipment: +0.9%
  • Clothing: +0.9%
  • Food services & drinking places: +0.6%
  • Food & beverage stores, health & personal care, general merchandise: each +0.4% to +0.5%
  • Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument & book stores: +0.2%
  • Gasoline station sales were flat; furniture and electronics down 0.1%
  • The control group (excluding food services, autos, building materials, and gasoline): +0.5%

Overall, June’s retail sales outperformed expectations, reversing a two-month declining trend and suggesting resilient consumer demand. However, some of the growth was driven by price increases linked to new import tariffs rather than a true volume surge. Notably, food services and e-commerce remained strong, posting 6.6% and 4.5% year-on-year increases, respectively. Looking ahead, persistent low unemployment and real wage gains are set to support spending, yet policy uncertainty and tariff changes pose risks. The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects 2025 full-year retail sales growth between 2.7% and 3.7%, reaching $5.42–$5.48 trillion, with both physical and online channels expected to see continued expansion, though GDP growth may dip below 2%.