US June Goods Trade Deficit Narrows to Lowest Level in Nearly Two Years

By ariachiang

2025-07-30

On July 29, the US Department of Commerce reported that the US goods trade deficit fell sharply to $86.0 billion in June 2025, down $10.4 billion or 10.8% from May’s $96.4 billion. This was the lowest level since August 2023, reflecting a notable drop in import demand and beating market forecasts.

Breakdown of key figures:

  • June goods imports were $264.2 billion, down $11.5 billion (–4.2%) from May, marking the lowest since March 2024.
    • Consumer goods imports fell 12.4% year-on-year to $58 billion; industrial supplies imports dropped 5.5% year-on-year to $48 billion; capital goods imports were broadly unchanged (up 0.6% month-on-month to $91 billion).
  • June goods exports came in at $178.2 billion, slipping just $1.1 billion (–0.6%) from May.
    • However, capital goods exports rose 4.7% month-on-month to $60 billion, and exports of foods, feeds and beverages increased 4% month-on-month to $14 billion, while industrial supplies exports declined.

The June deficit contraction far exceeded market expectations (forecasted at $98.3 billion), largely due to aggressive tariff policies that prompted early front-loading of imports prior to June and a subsequent drop-off, which may provide a positive contribution to Q2 GDP growth. The goods trade deficit is now approaching the 20-month low seen in April 2024. Looking ahead, with global trade expansion slowing and US trade policy/tariff uncertainty remaining elevated, analysts expect US trade performance to face continued headwinds in H2 2025, limiting its positive impact on overall economic growth.

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