According to the latest DataTrack data, as of January 28, 2026, the US 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.1%, a slight rise from the previous week's 6.09%, yet still close to the swing low of 6.06% set in mid-January. Reviewing the past year, rates have trended downward from a high near 7% in early 2025, reflecting cooling inflation and market expectations for easing policies. However, entering early 2026, the rate trend presents a consolidation pattern with a "capped ceiling and supported floor," indicating the market is digesting extreme policy signals characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors.
Detailed data reveals a rare "counteracting" situation between two core factors influencing rates. On one hand, the Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to "stand pat" during its January 28 meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range, citing that December inflation remained at 2.7%, slightly above target. This would normally push market rates higher. However, the government recently issued an executive order requiring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase approximately $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). This move artificially injected liquidity into the mortgage market, effectively suppressing the potential rate rebound caused by the Fed's pause on rate cuts and forcibly anchoring the 30-year rate near 6.1%.
Regarding the market direction following this wave of artificial intervention, Wall Street institutions hold divided views. Fannie Mae predicts that rates will further decline to 5.9% by the end of 2026, believing the government's liquidity support will continue to have an effect. Conversely, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) holds a conservative attitude, estimating that year-end rates will rebound to 6.4%, arguing that long-term bond yields will eventually reflect inflation stickiness. Bankrate analysts stated even more directly that unless the Fed cooperates by restarting rate cuts in the future, the rate-suppression effect brought about solely by MBS purchases may be "temporary and limited."
Looking at the short term (1-2 months), as the spring homebuying season arrives, the government's MBS purchase plan will serve as the main support for market confidence; rates are expected to consolidate narrowly within the 6.0% - 6.2% range, and homebuyers can utilize this "policy bonus period" to lock in rates. For the medium term (3-6 months), if core inflation data fails to fall below 2.5% forcing the Fed to maintain high rates for longer, the artificially suppressed mortgage spread may widen, and attention should be paid to the risk of rates retracing to 6.4%.
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