EU Unemployment Drops to 5.9% Hitting New Historic Low; Labor Market Resilience Significantly Exceeds Expectations

US Initial Jobless Claims Rise to 209,000, Slightly Exceeding Expectations; Labor Market Resilience Remains Strong

According to the latest data released by the US Department of Labor, for the week ending January 23, 2026, initial jobless claims were 209,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's 200,000 (unrevised previous value), and higher than the general market expectation of 206,000. Despite the single-week fluctuation in the data, the overall figure remains below the pre-pandemic average levels of 2019, reflecting that even against a backdrop of slowing economic growth, employers tend to retain existing employees rather than conducting large-scale layoffs. Observing the performance of key sub-items better reflects the solid foundation of the labor market. The "four-week moving average," which smooths out short-term volatility, rose slightly to 206,250, still at an extremely low level, indicating that labor market trends have not deteriorated. In addition, "continuing jobless claims," representing long-term unemployment conditions, recorded 1.827 million, down from the previous week, hitting a recent low. These data jointly depict a "low hiring, low layoff" dual-track labor market characteristic, supporting the narrative of a soft landing for the US economy. Regarding this data change, Bernard Yaros, Lead US Economist at Oxford Economics, pointed out that although initial claims rose slightly, the overall trend reinforces the baseline forecast that the unemployment rate will remain stable between 2025 and 2026. Institutional analysis generally believes that data at the beginning of the year is often subject to seasonal factors (such as post-holiday personnel adjustments) and severe weather interference. The current magnitude of the increase is insufficient to trigger concerns about a labor market collapse. Moreover, initial claims data typically leads the unemployment rate by about four months; the current low-level operation implies limited risk of a surge in the unemployment rate in the coming months. Looking ahead, in the short term (1-2 months), attention must be paid to whether continuing claims continue to decline. If they can remain at low levels, it will further confirm the health of the job market and may cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to remain patient regarding interest rate cut decisions. In the medium term (3-6 months), if initial claims consistently break through the 220,000-230,000 range, it could be seen as a signal of significantly weakening labor demand; the current data levels are more favorable for supporting the dollar's trend and alleviating immediate market panic regarding an economic recession. Online Search References: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s.-weekly-jobless-claims-edge-down-to-209000 https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294 https://www.kucoin.com/news/us-jobless-claims-rise-to-209k-in-january-2025-exceeding-forecasts