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US Trade Deficit Widens to $70.3 Billion in November, AI Equipment Demand and Tariff Expectations Boost Imports

By AI Insights

2026-02-20

Trend analysis based on the updated indicator. View the Indicator→

According to the latest released data, the US trade deficit in goods and services expanded to $70.3 billion (-70,311 Million USD) in November, a significant deterioration compared to the $56.8 billion in the previous month, representing a monthly increase of approximately 24%. This figure not only ended the narrowing trend of the previous two months but also approached the highs of mid-2025, indicating that under global supply chain restructuring and structural changes in domestic demand, the US foreign trade imbalance remains severe. Compared to the anomalously low point of $29.3 billion in September, the November data reflects a strong return of import momentum.

In terms of detailed performance, growth on the import side was particularly critical. According to a breakdown of relevant market data, import growth this month was mainly concentrated in "capital goods" and "industrial supplies and materials." In particular, as Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure construction accelerates, import demand for computer accessories and telecommunications equipment related to data centers has climbed sharply, becoming the main force pushing up overall import values. On the other hand, performance on the export side was relatively weak, with overseas sales of some non-monetary gold and consumer goods declining, further widening the trade gap.

Regarding this expansion of the deficit, multiple institutional analyses point to "policy expectations" and "structural demand" as the two main causes. Trading Economics and Reuters cited analyst views suggesting that as the market expects the new administration may restart high tariff policies, some companies have begun "front-loading" imports to avoid potential future cost increases. Additionally, Argus Media noted that while the strong dollar has suppressed export competitiveness to some extent, rigid domestic demand in the US for high-tech equipment remains a core factor supporting persistently high imports.

Looking ahead, in the short term (1-2 months), the trade deficit is likely to remain high and volatile. The main reason is that although peak demand for year-end holiday stocking has passed, the precautionary inventory replenishment effect by businesses may continue into early 2026. In the medium term (3-6 months), the market will focus heavily on the details of the new government's trade policies; if tariff measures are officially implemented, it may lead to a sudden freeze in imports and a temporary narrowing of the deficit in the initial stage, but this comes with risks of rising inflation and intensified global trade frictions. At that time, exchange rate fluctuations will become another major variable affecting the trade balance.

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