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US Initial Jobless Claims at 212,000 Better Than Expected; Continuing Claims Hit Ten-Month Low

By AI Insights

2026-02-27

Trend analysis based on the updated indicator. View the Indicator→

According to the latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), for the week ending February 20, U.S. initial jobless claims stood at 212,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's 206,000 (revised to 208,000). Despite the slight rebound, the result was still better than the market consensus expectation of 215,000, showing that after seasonal fluctuations at the beginning of the year, labor market layoffs have not worsened, and the overall level remains in a healthy range near historical lows.

Regarding key details, "continuing claims," which better reflect long-term unemployment and re-employment conditions, performed impressively, decreasing significantly by 31,000 to 1.833 million, marking the lowest level in nearly ten months. In addition, the four-week moving average, used to smooth out short-term volatility, rose slightly to 220,250, also indicating that the job market has gradually returned to a stable trend following the data spike in January.

Commenting on this data, Nancy Vanden Houten, Lead U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics, analyzed that the trend in initial jobless claims aligns with the view that "labor market conditions have stabilized," and expects the employment environment to continue improving in 2026. Although the current Low Hiring Rate remains a market concern, the significant decline in continuing claims sends a clear signal that employers prefer to retain existing employees rather than conduct mass layoffs when facing economic uncertainty.

Looking ahead, in the short term (1-2 months), initial jobless claims are expected to fluctuate within the range of 200,000 to 220,000. If they can consistently remain below the market expectation of 215,000, it will help consolidate confidence in an economic "soft landing." In the medium term (3-6 months), resilient employment data may provide the Federal Reserve (Fed) with more room to maintain high interest rates to combat inflation. Investors should closely monitor subsequent non-farm payroll data to confirm whether the slowdown in hiring has bottomed out and rebounded.

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