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Mortgage Rates Rebound for Three Consecutive Weeks to 6.11%, Market Awaits New Fed Guidance

By AI Insights

2026-02-07

Trend analysis based on the updated indicator. View the Indicator→

According to the latest DataTrack data, for the week ending February 4, 2026, the US 30-year fixed mortgage rate recorded 6.11%, a slight increase from the previous week's 6.10%, marking the third consecutive week of rebound since touching a recent low of 6.06% on January 14. Although the single-week change was only 1 basis point, the trend of consecutive increases has established the support strength of the 6% psychological barrier, indicating that mortgage rates are entering a bottoming and consolidation phase following the correction at the beginning of the year.

Observing the long-term trend, the current 6.11% remains significantly lower than the high of approximately 6.89% seen during the same period last year (February 2025), reflecting a clear improvement in financing pressure for homebuyers compared to a year ago. However, compared to the trend where rates briefly fell below 6.2% at the end of 2025, the recent rebound reflects intensified volatility in the bond market. Market-related details, such as the estimated 15-year fixed mortgage rate, also remain within the 5.35%-5.50% range, showing that the overall mortgage market structure remains stable without drastic changes in spreads.

In-depth analysis attributes the recent "three consecutive increases" primarily to the correction of macroeconomic resilience and monetary policy expectations. Although inflation has moderated, support from employment data has weakened the urgency for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates substantially in the short term. Analyses from Bloomberg and Reuters generally believe that the market is returning to rationality from "aggressive rate cut expectations," leading to a rebound in the 10-year US Treasury yield—the pricing benchmark—thereby limiting the downside space for mortgage rates.

Looking ahead, in the short term (1-2 months), mortgage rates are expected to fluctuate narrowly within the 6.0% to 6.3% range, with a major one-sided trend being unlikely. If inflation data fluctuates, a short-term test of the 6.4% resistance level cannot be ruled out. In the medium term (3-6 months), as economic growth momentum may slow, institutions like Fannie Mae estimate that rates still have a chance to slowly drift down to around 5.9%. Homebuyers are advised to pay attention to changes in the Federal Reserve's future dot plot as a key indicator for judging the timing to enter the market.

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