US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 227K, Higher Than Expected but Still Showing Employment Resilience

December Non-Farm Payrolls Surge by 130,000, Dispelling Recession Shadows; 2025 Labor Market Ends with a Narrow Escape

Core Overview: The latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor shows that non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs in December, a significant rebound from 50,000 in November, and significantly better than the market's gloomy expectations for this volatile year. This is the strongest performance since March 2025 (1,580,000), marking a signal of stabilization at the end of the year after the labor market experienced several negative growth periods mid-year (such as -1,050,000 in September). Key Details: Looking back at 2025, the data presented extreme volatility, especially the rare negative growth of 105,000 in September, as well as slight contractions in May and July. However, the strong rebound in December was accompanied by the unemployment rate falling to 4.3% (according to RBC Economics data), indicating that the corporate layoff wave did not expand into a systemic collapse. In addition, although employment growth for the full year of 2025 was weak, data shows that "Breakeven employment" has been significantly lowered, meaning the employment growth threshold required by the economy is no longer as strict as in the past. In-depth Attribution: RBC Economics points out that the employment weakness in 2025 was mainly dragged down by "structural tightness" and data downward revisions, but the increase in productivity (Output per worker) supported economic growth. The OECD report adds that the slowdown in immigration growth and tariff barriers were external factors leading to the hiring freeze in mid-2025. Analysts generally believe that the rebound in December data reflects the renewed hiring demand of enterprises after adapting to the new economic environment, rather than simple seasonal fluctuations. Outlook and Risks: In the short term (1-2 months), as December data clears recession doubts, market confidence is expected to be repaired, with employment data in early 2026 expected to maintain a moderate expansion range of around 100,000. In the medium term (3-6 months), although RBC predicts the unemployment rate may rise slightly, due to population aging and insufficient labor supply (Structural tightness), the risk of a labor market collapse is extremely low. Investors should pay attention to whether wage growth will reignite inflationary pressures. Web Search References: https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGlplpWtoc2Jlap9ItmWQQXPmIRu5UPv-9ROPUP66EMAZZ4EqikUsAMQEqafwTXmRSf3rsLwrVJ89eFtapR3u5frfmJWWUI_VVRPbjoiguntNoKgzxhZIDBk00XnRarn8uYxwPdteksKYb9NGDxDD1OVlQb9Z0DynBJq8YLhpnddn9OxTPBOVrnixtatpvgb7XrwJzlW97sIB7sSAA3uP6bX8KP3wuiJVcK5eL0W8LGhyNHNGpyi0sT_ImdBV8EhR8ZXw== https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF4C3BUjlEEucbqYdouWrHLgZihy10I3kQhOo2uEDH_CZRHO5qJ7amS6C2qtnyBpPBonuhvBG5tUTtT2A9VgVTY0rqfY7A6t__Y5-GmAEp9o4ApBMVZOKHkDCCVU2R3NAa2FQMbsAl3BjKBUQHpeCX9xtt5MWxwTCCbZOwYL4-uCVxZfD5tO0vnGl94InSJZZZIJbg7JdCX_H0LZtF_9a4zZ7c3JJkxojlysHmcjtrl3JlzlnpQ https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGY6zAI-v3P4BkCbRuQi9vvSaWLzU_VpGJjLEeeczAq1xHqNsYqgo8YkcBq95C2sGdhEq3QW72Tavkmn3WNG8Ry2vpsuv6og56Kub7N_6EMeU7I74VC5QuCokbFrGiG-yyHH16csN8WjCrMjCo0rRyhifbYrtwX_z2kkjnab5UyMfgpovepsAuqX0P6rM0=